U.S. Treasury bonds stabilize and wait for the Fed to start bond purchases, with the market focusing on the auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.
After experiencing the largest increase in three weeks, US Treasury bond prices have remained stable, as investors prepare to welcome the Federal Reserve's monthly purchase of $400 billion in Treasury bonds starting from Friday.
Notice that, after experiencing the largest increase in three weeks, the trend of US Treasury bonds is stabilizing. Investors are preparing for the Federal Reserve's launch on Friday of a monthly $400 billion Treasury securities purchase program.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond is holding steady at around 4.14%. The yield on the two-year Treasury bond, after experiencing the largest drop in two months on Wednesday, is also stabilizing - on that day, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 3.5% - 3.75%. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell played down the impact of the dissenting votes in the policy decision, while the Federal Reserve announced it would start buying US Treasuries to ease short-term financing cost pressures.
Mohit Kumar, Chief Economist and Strategist for the Jefferies Group in Europe, said, "Expansion of the balance sheet is vital," and "Given that the US Treasury is tilting issuance towards Treasury securities and short-term bonds, the Fed's purchase operations will have a stimulative effect."
The pricing in the currency market currently suggests a 50% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make its first 25 basis point rate cut in March 2026, and expectations are for two rate cuts next year.
The US Department of Labor will release initial jobless claims data on Thursday evening, with economists surveyed expecting the number to rise from 191,000 people in the week ending December 6th to 220,000 people. The US Treasury will complete its bond issuance plan this week by selling $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds. Last month's auction of bonds with the same term saw the tail end spread widen, which led to an increase in yields.
In other market news, European and UK government bonds overall remain stable. Japanese government bonds rose as the auction of 20-year bonds received the best demand ratio in over five years, with the higher yields attracting investors. Australian government bonds saw a significant increase as November employment numbers unexpectedly decreased, which may allow the country's central bank to extend the rate pause period in the face of stubborn inflation.
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