Zhongtai: A new stage of global energy storage demand, building the core main line of wind and solar energy.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that for the large energy storage market, the domestic policy is shifting from policy-driven to value-driven, with policy objectives providing a foundation and improved profit models driving future high demand. For the residential and commercial energy storage markets, developed markets are mainly driven by economic improvement and subsidy policies, while emerging markets are driven by rigid demand such as post-war reconstruction, electricity shortage and instability, and the replacement of diesel power. The trend of economic prosperity remains unchanged. As for wind power, by 2025 the industry fundamentals will be significantly repaired, with domestic onshore wind power stabilizing growth, high expectations for domestic offshore wind power, doubling annual additions compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan", and emerging markets like Asia, Africa, and Latin America becoming growth engines. High-value markets such as Europe and Japan are the main demand centers. The main points highlighted by Zhongtai are as follows: Energy storage: Demand logic reconstruction, global ceiling opening Demand logic analysis: (1) For the large energy storage market: domestically, the shift in policy from policy-driven to value-driven, with policy objectives ensuring stability and improved profit models driving future high demand; overseas, the trend in the US towards high energy consumption and large fluctuations based on AIDC development, opens up space for energy storage, while factors such as increasing penetration of new energy, grid parity for solar energy storage, and diverse revenue models drive demand in markets like Europe, Australia, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, and India. (2) For residential and commercial energy storage markets: developed markets are primarily driven by economic improvement and subsidy policies, while emerging markets are driven by rigid demand like post-war reconstruction, electricity shortage and instability, and the need to replace diesel power, with no change in economic trends. Recommended focus areas: (1) Integration: focus on leading energy storage integrators who are expected to benefit first from downstream customers; (2) PCS: with a superior layout, scarce independent third-party PCS targets for expanding overseas; (3) Thermal control: with a reshaped oligopoly, and leading companies opening new curves in liquid cooling for data centers; (4) Residential and commercial energy storage: the channel is king, with leading companies expanding their global layout for residential energy storage and accelerating the expansion of commercial energy storage categories. Wind power: Domestic industry format improving, dual-sea building core main lines High certainty of demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan": By 2025, the industry fundamentals will be significantly repaired, looking ahead to the "14th Five-Year Plan", with stable growth in domestic onshore wind power, high expectations for domestic offshore wind power, doubling annual additions compared to the "14th Five-Year Plan", and emerging markets like Asia, Africa, and Latin America becoming growth engines. High-value markets such as Europe and Japan are the main demand centers. Major trends: The price of domestic land wind turbine units has seen a clear upward trend since the end of 2024, with profits from wind turbine units in China entering a recovery channel in 2025, and more evident profit improvement in 2026. At the same time, with the volume of offshore wind starting to rise, and expectations of China's main turbines going abroad increasing from 1 to 10, the logic of rising volume and price is clear. Gearbox direction: Wind power gearbox value accounts for a high proportion and has inflationary logic, with a market space of over 40 billion yuan, a good layout, and superior profitability. It is advisable to focus on core industry leaders in the supply chain. Offshore wind direction: (1) Piles: While domestic demand expectations are high, capacity utilization will improve along with the optimization of new product structures; overseas, companies with rapid progress in overseas development will benefit first from significant supply-demand gaps in the future, focusing on their floating order execution and the expected benefits from accelerated shipbuilding and shipping business. (2) Submarine cables: High-voltage levels and high-value submarine cables have shown significant volume increases domestically, with a highly concentrated market structure, benefiting leading companies, similar to the supply-demand logic of piles overseas, where it is recommended to focus on leading domestic submarine cable companies. Risk alert: Demand domestically and abroad lower than expected; increased competition; overseas expansion lower than expected; geopolitical risks; risks of outdated data updates; risks of distorted third-party data; risks of industry calculation deviations, etc.