Industrial: At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, non-bank movements are often an important signal for the start of a volatile market.

date
20:28 08/12/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
Historically, after the proportion of non-bank transactions fell to around 2%, combined with external catalysts, it often triggered an excess market situation. Furthermore, according to historical experience, the window at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, non-bank abnormal movements (daily increase of more than 3%) are often important signals for the start of a lively market situation.
Industrial released a research report stating that an effective timing indicator for the non-banking sector, with trading volume as a percentage of turnover falling to 2%. Historically, when the trading volume of the non-banking sector falls to around 2%, complemented by external catalysts, it often triggers excess market movements. Furthermore, based on historical experience, the year-end and early-year window, with unusual movements in the non-banking sector (daily gains exceeding 3%), is often an important signal for the start of a bustling market. After unusual movements in the non-banking sector appear in the year-end and early-year window, the market as a whole often enters an upward phase. Key points from Industrial are as follows: An effective timing indicator for the non-banking sector: trading volume as a percentage of turnover falling to 2%. Historically, when the trading volume of the non-banking sector falls to around 2%, it is often followed by excess market movements with external catalysts. In the current situation, the trading volume as a percentage of turnover for the non-banking sector fell to a low of 1.5%, and with the adjustment of investment risk factors by insurers on December 5th and Chairman Wu Qing's proposal to "moderately broaden the capital space and leverage limit for securities firms" on December 6th, the non-banking sector was catalyzed to experience excess market movements. Furthermore, based on historical experience, during the year-end and early-year window, unusual movements in the non-banking sector (daily gains exceeding 3%) are often an important signal for the start of a bustling market. As an important "barometer" of market sentiment, unusual movements in the non-banking sector can significantly boost market sentiment during this window, which is conducive to the start of a bustling market. Referring to historical experience, during the approaching spring bustling window at the year-end and early-year period, the occurrence of unusual movements in the non-banking sector often serves as an important signal for the start of the market. Among the 15 year-end and early-year windows since 2010, there have been 7 instances where bustling market movements were accompanied by unusual movements in the non-banking sector. Historically, after unusual movements in the non-banking sector appear during the year-end and early-year window, the market as a whole often enters an upward phase. In the subsequent 10/20/30 trading days, the average increase in the entire A-share market is 6.8%/9%/12.8%. Looking at various indices/styles/industries, in the 20 trading days following unusual movements in the non-banking sector, at the index level, the performance of the SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 is superior; at the style level, the average returns of the large-cap growth and large-cap value sectors are leading; and at the industry level, the non-banking sector, non-ferrous, building materials, computer, and coal industries show relatively good performance.