Soochow: The increase in computing power demand drives the increase in liquid cooling penetration rate, optimistic about the acceleration of domestic supply chain entry.

Soochow released a research report stating that at present, cold plate cooling systems occupy the mainstream position among the main solutions for liquid cooling, and immersion cooling is expected to become the future development direction. With the gradual improvement of domestic liquid cooling systems and increasing emphasis on product cost-effectiveness in terminal CSP, the domestic supply chain is expected to enter the NVIDIA system directly. The current high-speed growth in AI server computing power is driving continuous increase in liquid cooling penetration rates. The demand for efficient and energy-saving heat exchange solutions in data centers is entering an explosive stage. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Envicool Technology (002837.SZ), Guangdong Shenling Environmental Systems (301018.SZ), Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech (300499.SZ), Wuxi Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Manufacturing (603090.SH), Dawning Information Industry (603019.SH) and J.Pond Precision Technology (301326.SZ), etc. Key points from Soochow: Liquid cooling technology: the only way to solve data center cooling pressure 1) Liquid cooling technology is the only way to solve the cooling pressure of data centers. It has the advantages of low energy consumption, high heat dissipation, low noise, and low total cost of ownership (TCO). At the same time, it can reduce the PUE value of data centers to meet national requirements. 2) With the iteration of chips and the rapid increase in power density, the cooling demand for corresponding chips is increasing, making traditional air cooling unsustainable and making liquid cooling a necessary measure. Currently, cold plate cooling systems occupy the mainstream position among the main solutions for liquid cooling, and immersion cooling is expected to become the future development direction. 3) Liquid cooling systems mainly consist of the outdoor side (primary side) and the room side (secondary side), with the primary side accounting for about 30% of the total value, mainly including chiller units, circulation pipelines, and safety monitoring instruments; while the secondary side accounts for about 70% of the total value, with core components including CDUs, Manifold+ quick connectors, pipeline water pumps, and valves. Liquid cooling industry: increasing value with chip upgrades, accelerating entry of domestic supply chain 1) Increase in liquid cooling value with chip upgrades: With the iteration and upgrading of chips, the power density is rapidly increasing, and the corresponding value of liquid cooling is also expected to grow rapidly. Taking GB300-GB200 servers as an example, according to calculations by the industry, the value of rack liquid cooling modules is expected to increase by more than 20%. In the future, with the upgrade to Rubin architecture, the value of liquid cooling is expected to further increase. According to industry calculations, the scale of ASIC liquid cooling systems is expected to reach 35.3 billion yuan in 2026, and the scale for NVIDIA liquid cooling systems is expected to reach 69.7 billion yuan. 2) Accelerating entry of domestic supply chain: In terms of business models, NVIDIA has opened up its supplier list, allowing contract manufacturers to autonomously choose their supply chain composition. Previously, only Weidie was the only certified CDU, but now multiple suppliers are being introduced. The domestic supply chain is expected to indirectly enter through secondary suppliers, and with the gradual improvement of domestic liquid cooling systems and increasing emphasis on product cost-effectiveness in terminal CSP, the domestic supply chain is expected to directly enter the NVIDIA system. Outlook for Rubin architecture: Microchannel cover plate & phase change cold plate as optional solutions Single-phase cold plates are not suitable for the Rubin architecture, as the thermal design power (TDP) of the Rubin architecture reaches 2300W, with a cabinet power of around 200kW, while the maximum design limit for single-phase cold plates is 150kW/cabinet, making them unsuitable for the Rubin architecture, and requiring the introduction of new liquid cooling solutions. 1) Feasible solution one: Phase change cold plate: Phase change cold plates use liquid working fluid to absorb heat within the cold plate and undergo a phase change (usually from liquid to gas), using the significant latent heat absorbed during the phase change for efficient cooling. Generally, the medium for phase change cold plates is mainly fluorinated liquid, suitable for scenarios with a single cabinet of 300kW or more; 2) Feasible solution two: Microchannel cover plate (MLCP), which essentially places a highly dense micro-scale cooling fluid channel network directly under or inside the cold plate substrate, with channel widths ranging from tens to hundreds of micrometers and channel densities typically reaching hundreds to thousands per square centimeter. The industry believes that microchannel cover plates have a high probability of becoming the chosen solution for the Rubin architecture, especially if considering the future Rubin Ultra solution with a TDP reaching over 4000W and total cabinet power exceeding 600kW. In this case, phase change cold plates will no longer be suitable, so considering solution maturity, direct adoption of microchannel cover plates would be more conducive to further iterative development. Risk warning: Risks of macroeconomic fluctuations; risks of lower than expected penetration rates in the liquid cooling market; risks of the domestic supply chain entering the North American market lower than expected.