Hong Kong stock concept tracking|Traditional "anti-involution" reshaping the pattern Cement overcapacity reduction process is expected to accelerate (with conceptual stocks)

On November 28, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held its routine press conference for November. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Pei Xiaofei, stated that recently the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Quota Total and Allocation Plan for the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries in the National Carbon Emission Trading Market for 2024 and 2025". The "Quota Plan" fully draws on the mature experience of the power generation industry, continuing the core framework of free quota allocation based on carbon emission intensity control. It is positioned similar to a "trial period", taking into account macroeconomic situations and setting a clear policy direction of "incentivizing advancements and pushing for improvements". The quota allocated to enterprises is linked to their actual output, and there is no absolute limit on total carbon emissions. According to the deployment arrangements of the "Quota Plan", the Ministry of Ecology and Environment will organize enterprises in the three newly added industries to complete their first quota clearance within the year. Governments at all levels will supervise and urge enterprises to fulfill their obligations on time, maintain the seriousness and effectiveness of the carbon emission trading market, and promote its stable and healthy operation. Galaxy Securities released a strategic report for the building materials industry in 2026, stating that the building materials index and fundamentals in 2025 are showing signs of recovery, with performance in sub-sectors varying. The "anti-inner competition" policy continues to advance, speeding up the reshaping of the market order for traditional building materials like cement and glass, with expectations of a positive supply-demand outlook and gradual restoration of industry profitability. According to Tianfeng's research report, in the cement sector, most northern provinces have started staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines in kiln shut-down. Provinces have successively announced their kiln shutdown plans for December last week, with the Yangtze River Delta region planning a shutdown of 13-15 days. Under environmental pressure, Hunan plans to shut down kilns for a month in December, with overall more intensified staggered production. In the short term, the cement industry has strong profitability support at the bottom, as top enterprises begin to fill the production gap for overcapacity in 2025. As of November, a total of 52.5 million tons of replacement and additional capacity have been added, with 83.59 million tons of capacity exiting. In 2025, the main policy target is to provide a window period for overproducing cement enterprises to make up for their quotas, and Tianfeng believes that the effects of actual overproduction control are expected to become evident starting in 2026. Related Hong Kong-listed stocks in the cement sector include HUAXIN CEMENT (06655), CNBM (03323), Anhui Conch Cement (00914), CR BLDG MAT TEC (01313), SHANSHUI CEMENT (00691), WESTCHINACEMENT (02233), BBMG Corporation (02009), Asia Cement (China) (00743), etc.