OECD Raises Growth Expectations for Major Economies: Global Trade Withstands Tariff Impact, AI Investment Acts as "Shock Absorber"

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has stated that the global economy has shown unexpected resilience in responding to trade tariffs up to 2025, largely due to significant growth in investment related to artificial intelligence and efforts by businesses to import goods before the tariffs take effect. In its latest Economic Outlook report released on December 2, 2025, the OECD raised growth forecasts for several major economies. The organization raised economic growth expectations for the United States and the Eurozone for this year and next, and made slight increases in expectations for other major economies. However, the OECD still predicts that global economic growth will decline to 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.2% in 2025, as the full impact of tariffs has yet to be fully realized. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann stated, "Despite concerns about a significant slowdown in the economy due to increased trade barriers and uncertainties, the global economy has shown resilience this year. However, global trade growth slowed in the second quarter of this year, and we expect higher tariffs to gradually lead to higher consumer prices, suppressing growth in household consumption and business investment." The impact of President Trump's attempts to modify world trade rules on international organizations and economists is difficult to predict. In June of this year, the OECD warned that the US economy growth rate would drop to 1.6%, but then raised this forecast to 1.8% in September, and now predicts it will reach 2%. The significant growth in artificial intelligence investment and the construction of data centers (especially in the United States) have also increasingly influenced economic forecasts. According to the OECD, the flourishing technology industry has supported global trade flows, and production growth in the technological field has outpaced other industries. The organization estimates that without large-scale AI investment, the US economy would shrink by 0.1% in the first half of the year, due to a slowdown in household consumption growth and reduced government procurement spending. Luiz de Mello, Director of the OECD's Country Studies Branch, stated, "Everything related to businesses acquiring the equipment necessary to thrive in this new technological age has promoted economic activity, to some extent offsetting the negative effects of policy uncertainty and tariffs on economic activity." However, the organization warns that the rapid expansion of the technology industry and optimistic expectations for artificial intelligence, given current high valuations, could pose risks of sudden downturns and even forced selling of assets. Given concerns about the rapid changes in trade measures, the OECD stated that the current situation is "unstable" and its forecasts are "subject to significant risks."