UBS: The "V-shaped reversal" of the Swiss franc in October was not caused by foreign exchange intervention by the Swiss National Bank.

According to calculations by UBS based on balance sheet data, the Swiss National Bank did not intervene in the foreign exchange market in October, when the Swiss Franc saw a reversal in trend. UBS economist Florian Germanier estimates that the central bank's foreign exchange trading volume in that month ranged between buying 20 million Swiss Francs (approximately 25 million US dollars) and selling 50 million Swiss Francs (approximately 5.1 billion US dollars). These figures are much lower than the bank's expenditure of 5.1 billion Swiss Francs in the second quarter. Germanier said, "There is no evidence that the Swiss National Bank intervened." This range does not necessarily mean officials took action - and at times when they did, balance sheet data indicates a much larger impact." In October, the euro to Swiss Franc exchange rate briefly reached 0.92, a level considered significant by many traders. The rate then reversed, leading to speculation that policymakers had sold currency to curb the rise of the Swiss Franc. However, they ultimately did not take this action, indicating a shift towards more cautious intervention measures compared to the bank's past large-scale selling of the Franc. Germanier added that the Swiss National Bank may have intervened in the market in November as well, to address the situation where the Swiss Franc reached its highest level in a decade due to a trade agreement between Switzerland and the United States. He said that the market volatility in mid-November - when the Franc reached its highest level since the Swiss National Bank removed the exchange rate cap in January 2015 - may indicate this. He said, "We have seen some changes that can be attributed to intervention measures. But this may also be influenced by other factors." The Swiss National Bank will release its market transaction data three months after the end of each quarter. This means that official data for the period from October to December will not be published until the end of March 2026.