Xiangcai Securities: Profit in the non-ferrous sector continues to improve in the third quarter, and the price of gold is expected to rise in the long term.

Xiangcai Securities released a research report stating that it is recommended to pay attention to the short-term supply side being disrupted by foreign mine stoppages and the long-term decrease in supply due to insufficient capital expenditure constraints. Demand side is supported by domestic power grid investment and new demand from abroad, AI and new energy prosperity driving forces. The future supply-demand gap is expected to increase, and under the overall trend of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, copper sector, which has strong financial attributes. In the precious metals sector, with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increasing pressure from U.S. bonds leading to a weakening trend of the U.S. dollar, as well as the trend of central banks diversifying reserves driving the long-term increase in gold reserves, the price of gold is expected to rise in the long term. It is recommended to focus on ZHAOJIN MINING (01818). It is also recommended to pay attention to the tungsten sector and the rare earth permanent magnet sector with strong strategic value attributes and constrained supply. Maintain a "hold" rating for the industry. Xiangcai Securities' main points are as follows: Since 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has far outperformed the benchmark, with cobalt, rare earth, and tungsten sectors growing in tandem. According to Wind data, as of November 21, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index (Shenwan) has accumulated a 65.71% increase since 2025, exceeding the 52.53% increase of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index. The non-ferrous metals industry ranked second in terms of growth in the first three quarters of 2025 among Shenwan's primary industries, with the industry showing an acceleration in the third quarter of 2025, although the relative growth rate has slowed down. In terms of specific sectors, the nickel sector had the highest growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with the silver sector leading in the third quarter of 2025, while the cobalt, rare earth, and tungsten sectors have performed equally well since 2025. In the third quarter of 2025, the income and profit growth rates of the non-ferrous industry have gradually stabilized since the beginning of the year, with the profit growth rates of middle and upstream smelting and processing industries rebounding. In terms of listed companies, the revenue and performance growth rates of the non-ferrous sector have increased, while the profitabilit