In the United States, "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year-on-year, with AI traffic surging by 600%. Inflation and the "K-shaped economy" remain the main themes.

American consumers showed a higher level of consumption resilience than market expectations on this year's "Black Friday," leading to a steady increase in retail sales. However, behind this bright data, there lies a reality of weak actual purchasing power growth in a high inflation environment and an increasing economic differentiation. Although overall spending has increased, the consumption behavior of the affluent and low-income groups has shown significant "K-shaped" differentiation, with inflation anxiety and price sensitivity becoming the dominant variables shaping market sentiment. According to the latest statistics released by SpendingPulse, which provides data to Mastercard, retail sales in the U.S. on "Black Friday" (excluding automobiles) grew by 4.1% year-on-year, exceeding last year's growth rate of 3.4%. At the same time, data from Adobe Analytics revealed a new trend: for the first time, generative artificial intelligence played a key role in the holiday shopping season, with AI-related traffic to U.S. e-commerce websites increasing by 600% compared to last year. This series of data provides important signals for executives, economists, and investors closely monitoring the holiday shopping season. On one hand, the data indicates that despite high borrowing costs and uncertainty in the job market, American consumers have not stopped opening their wallets; on the other hand, market analysis suggests that the growth in sales is largely driven by price increases rather than increased sales volumes. When inflation factors are taken into account, the actual growth in spending may be very limited, showing that consumers have become more savvy and cautious in their purchasing decisions. As the holiday shopping season progresses, market attention is shifting to the extent to which consumers can maintain this level of spending. The current consumption pattern not only reflects the instability of the macro economy but also highlights the deep structural contradictions within the U.S. economy, where the affluent continue to splurge while ordinary households relying on wages are forced to cope with the cost of living crisis through stricter budget management. The explosion of AI in e-commerce and online sales This year marked the year when generative AI truly entered consumer shopping decisions. According to Adobe Analytics, with companies like OpenAI and Perplexity introducing browsing and shopping tools with agent functions, consumers are increasingly relying on AI technology to research products and compare prices. In addition to the 600% increase in AI traffic, about 48% of surveyed consumers plan to use AI-assisted online shopping during this shopping season. Online channels have become the main engine of growth this year. Adobe data shows that in online consumption alone, shoppers spent $11.8 billion, a 9.1% year-on-year increase. Although Mastercard's data uses slightly different metrics, it also shows a 10.4% increase in online sales, far exceeding the 1.7% increase in physical store sales. E-commerce software provider Shopify revealed that its platform merchants were recording nearly $2.8 million in sales per minute by Friday night. Vivek Pandya, Chief Analyst at Adobe Analytics, pointed out that retailers increased discounts during Thanksgiving, successfully driving a surge in online demand. "K-shaped economy" and wealth gap Despite overall positive data, segmented data shows a distinct "K-shaped" trend in the U.S. economy. Citing the latest "Beige Book" from the Federal Reserve, CNN pointed out that spending by low-income and middle-income consumers is declining, while the high-income class with stocks and real estate continues to indulge in luxury goods and travel. Consumer expert Claudia Lombana told CNN, "Higher-income earners spend as they please, while those who are not as wealthy are watching their pennies." Rick Newman, author of the economic briefing "The Pinpoint Press," analyzed that considering the current inflation rate of about 3%, the nominal spending growth of 4.1% may mean actual growth is only around 1%. He noted that for the low-income groups without stocks or real estate, rising rents outpacing income growth, high heating and food prices are forcing them to be more frugal in purchasing gifts and necessities. Inflation concerns and expectations of Trump tariffs Prices remain a decisive factor in consumer choices. According to data from the National Retail Federation (NRF), 85% of consumers expect prices to rise further in the future due to President Donald Trump's tariff policies. Newman pointed out that while consumers may not calculate the cost of tariffs item by item, it has become a psychological burden when they shop. In this context, retailers focusing on value for money have become winners. Chain stores like Walmart, TJ Maxx, and Gap have benefitted from helping consumers "stretch a dollar further," reporting strong sales performance. Walmart stated that its market share has increased across all income groups. In contrast, companies like Target Corp. and Bath & Body Works face challenges, with Target reporting only 150 shoppers waiting for free gifts when opening, indicating subdued foot traffic. Credit pressure and the outlook To cope with financial pressure, the use of "Buy Now, Pay Later" has significantly increased. Adobe predicts that the transactions completed through this payment method from November 1st to December 31st will reach $20.2 billion, an 11% year-on-year increase, implying some consumers are facing tight cash flow. Despite the squeeze on the cost of living, Michelle Meyer, chief economist at the Mastercard Economic Research Institute, emphasized in an interview, "This clearly indicates that consumers still have spending power." The market is now focused on the upcoming "Cyber Monday," with Adobe predicting it to be the biggest online shopping day of the year, with sales reaching $14.2 billion, a 6.3% year-on-year increase. The NRF expects retail sales for the entire November and December period to grow between 3.7% to 4.2%, and while this may be a record-breaking $1 trillion holiday season, much of the growth comes from price increases rather than a surge in demand. This article was originally published on Wall Street Seen and edited by GMTEight.