The total online sales volume of "Black Friday" in the United States is expected to reach a new high, but the underlying concern of a cooling in consumption due to economic headwinds is hard to hide.

According to Adobe Analytics, online sales on "Black Friday" in the United States reached $8.6 billion, as more consumers chose to shop online using laptops and smartphones instead of braving the cold to go to physical stores to snag holiday weekend deals. The data insights department of Adobe (ADBE.US) derived this data by monitoring e-commerce transactions covering over 1 trillion visits to American retail websites. As of 6:30 PM on Friday evening Eastern Time, online consumer spending had increased by 9.4% compared to the same period last year. Previously, it was expected that consumers would flock to physical stores for shopping. However, on the morning after Thanksgiving, the shopping frenzy cooled down as shoppers expressed concerns about overspending in the face of ongoing inflation, uncertainty due to trade policies, and a weak labor market. Adobe Analytics predicts that after final calculations, online sales on "Black Friday" will reach $11.7-11.9 billion, setting a new record for online sales on "Black Friday". Due to sustained high discounts, consumers are expected to spend $5.5 billion on Saturday (a 3.8% increase from last year) and $5.9 billion on Sunday (a 5.4% increase from last year). Additionally, Adobe forecasts that "Cyber Monday" next week will once again become the largest online shopping day of the quarter, driving $14.2 billion in consumer spending - a 6.3% increase from last year. Holiday shopping season arrives, consumers become more cautious The U.S. holiday shopping season officially kicked off on Friday, but consumers are facing a series of economic worries - a cooling job market, stagnant wage growth, persistently high inflation, and the potential chain reaction from tariff policies. In this context, "Black Friday" will be a litmus test - will American consumers withstand the escalating economic headwinds and continue to spend, or will this consumption-driven U.S. economy begin to show signs of fatigue? Evidence suggests that this year's holiday shopping season will lean towards rationality. Data from market research firm Circa indicates that although overall spending is expected to remain flat compared to last year, product sales may decline by up to 2.5%. In other words, consumers may end up spending more money but buying fewer items. Marshal Cohen, chief retail advisor at Circa, said: "We don't expect this to be a frenzy-driven holiday season." "There won't be piles of gifts under the Christmas tree this year." Data from the National Retail Federation shows that this year's holiday shopping season is expected to attract 187 million consumers, a historic high, accounting for over half of the U.S. population. However, consumers' willingness to spend is clearly declining, with Deloitte's survey showing an average planned expenditure decrease of 4% to $622. Shoppers planning to tighten their budgets cite higher living costs and financial constraints as the main reasons. A holiday shopping survey by consulting firm Accenture Plc Class A indicated that the expected increase in total spending "largely reflects price increases, rather than an improvement in consumer confidence." 20% of annual sales for U.S. retailers come from November and December. This year, companies are vying for increasingly price-sensitive and internally anxious consumers. Although people are still willing to spend - especially the top 10% income group - they are becoming very selective about where they spend. Some consumers say they plan to take advantage of "Black Friday" promotions not to splurge, but to stockpile essential items. Meanwhile, tariff policies are making it difficult for some brands to offer the significant discounts traditionally seen on "Black Friday". Consumers shopping in physical stores may encounter longer lines and fewer sales associates, as seasonal retail job recruitment is expected to reach its lowest level since 2009. Despite macroeconomic turbulence, U.S. consumer spending has remained relatively stable this year. At the beginning of the year, some consumers purchased large quantities of goods in advance to avoid impending tariffs, driving sales growth. Subsequent strong stock market performance has enabled high-income groups to continue spending. Many retailers have reported that people's buying habits remain consistent, and the impact of tariffs on prices is not as severe as initially expected. However, there have been some recent signs of pessimism. Lower-income consumers are cutting back on spending, with the U.S. consumer confidence index in November experiencing its largest drop in seven months, and retail sales growth in September also slowing down. Rick Gomez, Chief Commercial Officer of Target Corporation (TGT.US), said consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest point in three years, with concerns about employment, affordability, and tariffs weighing on people's minds. A survey by the National Retail Federation shows that 85% of consumers expect tariffs to raise prices for gifts and holiday items. Jessica Ramirez, Managing Director of consumer consulting firm Consumer Collective, said consumers may lean towards buying goods that could be impacted by tariffs next year. In recent years, as more consumers take advantage of fall promotions and online events like Amazon.com, Inc. Prime Day to start holiday shopping early, the "festive appeal" of Black Friday has diminished. Michael Brown, head of the Americas retail business at strategic consulting firm Kearney, said that due to concerns about tariffs, this trend is more pronounced this year, which could impact overall spending in the next two months. The National Retail Federation predicts that holiday season sales growth rate in November and December will slightly slow to 3.7%-4.2%, lower than the 4.3% in 2024, but total sales are expected to break $1 trillion for the first time.