Preview of US Stock Market | CME futures trading suspended, "Black Five" kicks off shopping season

1. Before the US stock market opened on Friday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) suspended trading due to cooling issues at the CyrusOne data center, leading to the continued suspension of stock index futures trading on Friday. However, ETFs tracking major stock indexes rose in pre-market trading: SPY +0.26%, QQQ +0.42%, DIA +0.11%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell by 0.03%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.11%, the French CAC 40 index rose by 0.10%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.02%. Market News CME Group Inc. Class A suspended derivative trading due to a malfunction, potentially causing market volatility. A spokesperson for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Singapore said that due to technical issues at their data center, the CME suspended futures and options trading on Friday. The spokesperson stated via email, "Our market is currently suspended due to cooling issues at the CyrusOne data center. The support team is working hard to resolve the issue as soon as possible and will notify customers immediately after the pre-market details are confirmed." Contracts including US crude oil, gasoline, and Malaysian palm oil traded through the CME's electronic platform were impacted in early Asian trading on the Friday after Thanksgiving. Traders said that US Treasury bonds and S&P 500 index futures contracts were also affected. According to the latest information, CME Group Inc. Class A stated that the trading platform BrokerTec US Treasury futures has resumed trading, while other markets are still suspended. "Black Friday" kicks off the shopping season, retail growth expected to slow down. "Black Friday" (the day after Thanksgiving) marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season, which typically accounts for one-third of US retailers' annual profits. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, a record 186.9 million Americans will shop, surpassing last year's 183.4 million. Sales in November and December are expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time, but sales growth is expected to slow down to 3.7% to 4.2%, lower than last year's 4.8% increase. The NRF stated that consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 per person. The slowdown in sales growth aligns with more pessimistic expectations from other major data companies regarding the holiday shopping season, which typically accounts for one-third of US retailers' annual profits. Amid continued weakness in non-farm employment, Trump unveils a "nuclear-level" immigration restriction! Trying to close the gate to third-world labor. US President Donald Trump announced a major plan to tighten US immigration regulations, including suspending immigration from "third-world countries" and canceling all federal benefits and policy subsidies for "non-federal citizens" in the US. Trump's latest stance on illegal immigration in the US signals a further tightening of the labor market supply amid significantly weak non-farm employment data. Therefore, the US labor market appears to be more like a "chronic recession" in the short term, not a sudden cliff-collapse, but enough to put the US economy into a long-term slow growth or even negative growth range. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns: layoffs continue to spread, signs of weakness in the US job market intensify. In a new report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns that the US labor market may be starting to soften, as private sector data shows increasing layoffs in multiple industries. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. states that the number of WARN notifications related to major layoffs in various states has surged to the highest level since 2016 (excluding the surge during the pandemic), the most rapid growth the bank has seen in nearly a decade. The report points out that data compiled by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks corporate layoffs, shows that as of October, layoffs have reached levels not seen since outside of an economic recession, with layoffs in the technology, industrial, and food and beverage sectors driving the increase. Cryptocurrency market turmoil impacts "digital asset treasury" companies, industry consolidation on the horizon. Recent cryptocurrency market turmoil has significantly dragged down the stock prices of listed companies holding tokens like Bitcoin, putting pressure on the rapidly growing but niche "digital asset treasury" (DAT) sector. Despite a wave of listed companies entering cryptocurrency investments at the beginning of the year, driven by Trump's crypto-friendly stance and successful cases under Michael Saylor's Strategy company, concerns about an AI bubble and uncertainty about Fed rate cuts have led Bitcoin to fall to its lowest point since April, with related company stock prices falling significantly, with Strategy dropping nearly 36% in November. As of last Friday, at least 15 Bitcoin treasury companies' stock prices have fallen below their token net asset values. DAT companies currently hold 4% of Bitcoin, 3.1% of Ethereum, and 0.8% of Solana, and their moves may have a significant impact on token prices, with Standard Chartered Bank anticipating accelerated consolidation in the industry. Trump unveils a "zero income tax" bombshell! Aims to fill a $2.4 trillion gap with tariffs. In a holiday address to US troops on Thanksgiving, US President Trump announced that due to government revenues from tariffs, his administration may completely eliminate income taxes in the coming years, a move that undoubtedly drops a bombshell on the economics world. Trump told military personnel in a video call, "Over the next few years, I think we'll greatly reduce, even entirely eliminate, income taxes because the revenue we're getting will be very large, so we might almost entirely eliminate income taxes." This is not the first time Trump has mentioned this concept. During his campaign, he expressed his admiration for the 19th-century US fiscal model before the introduction of income taxes in 1913, the primary source of revenue for the US federal government was tariffs. Stock-specific News The fallout from First Brands bankruptcy continues! The SEC investigates Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF.US). Two sources revealed that the US Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating the relationship between Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (JEF.US) and the bankrupt automotive component supplier First Brands. The SEC is looking into whether Jefferies Financial Group Inc. disclosed the risks associated with First Brands to investors in its Point Bonita fund. The regulatory agency is also reviewing the internal controls of Jefferies Financial Group Inc. and potential conflicts within the investment bank's various departments. The sources revealed that the SEC's investigation is still in its early stages, and it is unclear if any improper behavior will be charged. Bubble tea chain CHA.US releases third-quarter financial report, overseas GMV surges over 75%. As of the third quarter ending September 30th, the bubble tea chain had a total of 7,338 stores worldwide. Total GMV for the third quarter reached 7.93 billion, with net revenues of 3.208 billion and adjusted net profits of 503 million. As of September 30th, the bubble tea chain's mini-program registered member users reached 222 million, a 36.7% increase year-over-year. Importantly, the chain's overseas business continued its growth in the third quarter, with overseas GMV exceeding 3 billion, a 75.3% year-over-year increase, and a 27.7% increase quarter-over-quarter. The bubble tea chain has been profitable for eleven consecutive quarters. As of September 30, 2025, the company's cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash, and time deposits totaled 9.142 billion, with no interest-bearing liabilities, indicating healthy cash flow. The EU launches a review, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) advertising and mapping services may face strict regulation under the Digital Markets Act. The EU's antitrust regulator stated that it will evaluate whether Apple's advertising service platform Apple Ads and mapping service Apple Maps have reached a key standard, and consider whether they should be subject to the strict provisions of the EU's Digital Markets Act. In response, the US tech giant argues that its services should receive exemptions. Meta shifts towards Alphabet Inc. Class C, disrupts AI landscape, OpenAI chain in talks for a $38 billion loan to strengthen the ecosystem. Sources revealed on Friday that several banks are in talks about a new loan of up to $38 billion with Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US) and data center developer Vantage Data Centers, to be used for expanding infrastructure for OpenAI. This news quickly shifted the market's focus back to OpenAI and its ecosystem built with partners like Oracle Corporation, Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon.com, Inc. Recently, news of Meta's purchase of TPU chips from Alphabet Inc. Class C has caused a stir in the market. This dynamic not only prompted a reevaluation of Alphabet Inc. Class C's strength in the AI field but also sparked heated discussions about the "Alphabet Inc. Class C AI chain". As a result, companies with relatively high associations with OpenAI have come under pressure. Dalio warns of an AI bubble, Bridgewater sees a "golden" opportunity in CoreWeave (CRWV.US). The world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater, recently made an unexpected investment spending $37 million to buy 270,556 shares of CoreWeave. This investment timing is particularly interesting, as the fund's founder Dalio recently warned that the AI sector is trading in bubble territory. It is worth noting that Dalio did not recommend panic selling for investors. He offered more nuanced insights: while current stock prices do exceed intrinsic values, bubbles do not simply burst on their own; they often require catalysts such as policy changes or wealth taxes. His real concern is the challenges that steadfast investors will face in the future. Historical experience shows that when the market frenzy reaches this level, the investment returns over the next ten years are often disappointing. Important economic data and events for the week ahead 23:00 Beijing time: US Seasonally Adjusted New Home Sales Annualized Total (in thousands) for September. Thanksgiving will see an early close at 02:00 on November 29 Beijing time. Trading for US Treasury futures contracts will end at 03:30, while trading for precious metals, US crude, and forex futures contracts will end at 03:45 on November 29 Beijing time. Trading for stock index futures contracts will end at 02:15, and for Brent crude futures contracts will end at 4:00 on November 29 Beijing time.