Strong Black Friday Momentum Despite Consumer Uncertainty

Black Friday continues to generate strong consumer activity despite tariff-related concerns and broader economic uncertainty, even if it no longer resembles the frenzied scenes once associated with the event. While retailers face pressure from higher import costs, many have chosen to absorb part of the impact and limit hiring rather than raise prices. Consumer confidence has weakened to its lowest point since April amid lingering effects from the government shutdown, soft employment data, and persistent inflation, according to The Conference Board. Still, steady quarterly results from Walmart, Best Buy, and other major chains indicate that shoppers remain willing to spend, though they are increasingly focused on discounts and selective purchases.

Individual buyers, such as 50-year-old Aron Boxer of Greenwich, Connecticut, have delayed major purchases due to tariff worries, opting instead to hunt for bargains during Cyber Monday or wait for deeper markdowns. Mall traffic heading into Black Friday has surpassed 2019 levels, suggesting continued enthusiasm for in-person shopping.

The National Retail Federation expects holiday spending in November and December to reach between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, marking a 3.7% to 4.2% rise from last year, when consumers spent $976 billion. Mastercard SpendingPulse forecasts a 3.6% increase in sales for the season, slightly below last year’s 4.1%, while noting that despite uncertainty, consumers are still participating robustly in holiday shopping.

Online sales have also been strong, with Adobe Analytics reporting $79.7 billion spent from Nov. 1 through Sunday, a 7.5% increase that exceeds earlier projections. Tariffs have influenced both inventory decisions and pricing strategies, prompting retailers to accelerate shipments before duties took effect and to absorb some additional costs, although notable price increases have emerged in categories heavily dependent on Chinese imports. Circana’s data shows that 40% of general merchandise categories saw price gains of at least 5% in September, with toys, baby goods, housewares, and sports equipment most affected. Toy prices in particular surged, with 83% of items in September showing increases of at least 5%, up sharply from June.

Some retail executives report that holiday promotions initially appeared more restrained, though discounts of 30% to 50% have become more common as the week progressed and are expected to deepen over the Black Friday weekend.