After 14 years, standing at the top of the global rankings again? Market research firm Counterpoint predicts that Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) will surpass Samsung in smartphone shipments this year.

Market research firm Counterpoint Research stated on Wednesday that Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) is expected to surpass Samsung in 2025 and become the top manufacturer in global smartphone shipments, marking Apple Inc.'s return to the top spot after 14 years. Data provided by Counterpoint to the media shows that Apple Inc. is expected to ship around 243 million iPhones this year, while Samsung's shipment volume is projected to be 235 million. Apple Inc.'s market share in the global smartphone market will reach 19.4%, slightly higher than Samsung's 18.7%. Smartphone "shipments" refer to the number of devices sent by manufacturers to retail channels and do not necessarily equate to actual sales, but they reflect the manufacturers' judgment of demand and expectations for future sales. Counterpoint stated that Apple Inc.'s strong performance is mainly attributed to the iPhone 17 series launched in September this year, which achieved "explosive" sales during the holiday season. The data shows that the sales of the iPhone 17 series (including the iPhone Air) in the first four weeks on the market in the U.S. were 12% higher than the iPhone 16 series during the same period (excluding 16e); in Apple Inc.'s most critical overseas market, China, the sales of the new devices during the same period increased by 18% compared to the previous generation. Counterpoint's Senior Analyst Yang Wang pointed out that in addition to the impressive performance of the iPhone 17 series in the market, the consumers' replacement cycle reaching a critical point is also a core reason for the upward adjustment in forecasts. "Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 pandemic are now generally entering a replacement phase, which is bringing a new peak in demand." In contrast, Counterpoint believes that Samsung may face fierce competition from Chinese manufacturers in the mid to low-end market in the future, which will limit Samsung's ability to reclaim the top spot globally. Looking at a longer period, Counterpoint predicts that Apple Inc. will maintain its position as the top player in the global smartphone market until at least 2029. The research firm outlined multiple supporting factors: from 2023 to the second quarter of 2025, a total of 358 million used iPhones were sold globally, and these users are likely to upgrade to new iPhones in the future, forming a stable and large demand base for Apple Inc. The research report points out that the trade agreement between China and the U.S. has resulted in lower tariff impacts on Apple Inc.'s supply chain than expected; in addition, a weakening U.S. dollar and more robust economic prospects are boosting consumer confidence, all of which are favorable factors for Apple Inc. Wang stated, "With these structural advantages, Apple Inc. is highly likely to surpass Samsung in annual shipments in 2025 for the first time." Looking ahead, Counterpoint expects Apple Inc. to launch an entry-level iPhone 17e next year and a foldable screen phone. At the same time, Apple Inc. plans a major design upgrade for the iPhone in 2027 and a comprehensive improvement for the voice assistant Siri, as previously announced, to further strengthen Apple Inc.'s competitive advantage. The research firm believes that by further expanding its product line to cover more price segments, including the rapidly growing "e series," and possibly adjusting the release schedule of the Pro series and standard version, Apple Inc. is strategically strengthening its appeal in emerging markets and the "affordable luxury price segment," which is expected to grow faster than the overall industry. Counterpoint concludes that with the continuous improvement in the attractiveness of the iOS ecosystem, the high interconnectivity between Apple Inc.'s products, and a large number of old device users ready to upgrade, Apple Inc. will continue to maintain its leading position over other smartphone manufacturers by the end of this decade.