DR Congo (Gold) Cobalt Export Ban Still Not Restarted Nearly Six Weeks After Expiry, Exacerbating Global Supply Tightness.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo's (Congo (Kinshasa)) export ban aimed at controlling cobalt supply, which officially expired nearly six weeks ago, but mining companies have still not been allowed to resume exports. The country's government regulatory agency stated that the issuance of cobalt export permits is still waiting for the completion of procedures, causing trucks loaded with cobalt ore to be unable to travel to the border. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the source of about three-quarters of the world's cobalt production, and any changes in its export policy will impact the global electric vehicle, battery, and aerospace industries. To prevent a rapid market supply recovery from putting pressure on prices, the government had planned to implement strict export quotas starting on October 16, but there have been delays in actual implementation. The Agence de Rgulation et de Contrle des Matires Minrales Stratgiques (ARECOMS), which is responsible for regulating the strategic mineral market in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, stated via email on Wednesday that "the implementation of this measure is delayed." Government departments need to ensure that ARECOMS is fully integrated into the export process and verify the feasibility of the new approval procedures introduced. In February of this year, the Democratic Republic of the Congo suspended cobalt exports to curb oversupply and support cobalt prices. In recent years, with CMOC Group Limited accelerating production at two large mines in the area, coupled with increased production in Indonesia, global cobalt supply has surged, leading to a price decline. Quotas previously announced by ARECOMS show that the annual export limit for 2024 allows for slightly more than 18,000 tonnes of cobalt, while the annual export limits for 2026 and 2027 are both 96,600 tonnes, significantly lower than the actual production in the country in 2024, indicating a long-term tightening of supply. When the export ban was implemented, cobalt prices fell below $10 per pound, reaching rare lows in 21 years (excluding a brief decline in 2015). Since the ban took effect, cobalt prices have doubled, with cobalt hydroxide prices rising more than four times. ARECOMS stated that the remaining steps needed to restart exports are expected to be completed in the short term, and an announcement will be made in the "coming days." Before permits are reinstated, mining companies continue to stockpile cobalt inventories, but copper exports are not affected. Copper and cobalt are commonly mined together in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In the latest allocation of export quotas, last year's largest global cobalt producer, CMOC Group Limited, received the largest quota, followed by Glencore (GLNCY.US) and Eurasian Resources Group. The state-owned company Entreprise Generale du Cobalt, which has a monopoly on artisanal mining cobalt exports, received the fourth quota. In addition to the annual quotas allocated to mining companies, the regulatory agency has also reserved about 10% of the total as "strategic quotas," which will be allocated at the discretion of ARECOMS.