Rising energy costs pushed up U.S. September PPI, inflation stickiness continues to test the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. producer price index (PPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month in September, in line with market expectations. The year-on-year increase also rose from 2.60% in August to 2.7%, which also matched market expectations.
The US producer price index (PPI) in September rose compared to August, reflecting increases in energy and food prices. Specific data shows that the PPI increased by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with market expectations, while the year-on-year increase rose from 2.6% in August to 2.7%, also meeting market expectations. The core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.1% month-on-month, lower than the market expectation of 0.2%, but an increase from the previous value of -0.1%. Year-on-year, the core PPI in September increased by 2.6%, higher than the analyst's estimate of 2.7%.
Wholesale commodity prices rose by 0.9%, with 60% of the increase attributed to the rise in gasoline prices. The PPI report shows that service prices remained unchanged after a decrease in the previous month.
In the service industry, wholesale profit margins for mechanical equipment decreased, while profit margins for food wholesale increased. Aviation passenger service costs also rose.
Wholesale price data is released one month after the consumer price index is announced in September, which showed inflation levels lower than expected. The PPI indicates that businesses are concerned that rising costs will lead to customer losses, thus limiting the extent of price increases to offset the increase in import tariffs.
This data, delayed by the government shutdown, is the first update after the delay and will provide a key basis for assessing the inflation path in the US. Previously, in August, the PPI unexpectedly declined, mainly due to a fall in prices in the service category, while the September data has returned to a typical growth pattern.
It is worth mentioning that this data is one of the leading indicators of the favored inflation measure of the Federal Reserve, the PCE Price Index, and the PCE Price Index will be announced on December 5th.
The current inflation stickiness contradicts the soft job market, leading to divergent opinions within the Federal Reserve, and this PPI data will be one of the important decision references for the monetary policy meeting in December.
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