China’s 15th Five-Year Plan: Tech Self-Reliance, Manufacturing and a Measured Push for Domestic Demand

China’s leadership frames the 15th Plan as the next phase of “high-quality development” - a transition from quantity-led growth to productivity, innovation and greater domestic capability in core technologies. The plan puts scientific and technological self-reliance at the centre of policy, directing more resources toward R&D, industrial upgrading and “strategic emerging industries” such as AI, advanced chips, green energy systems and aerospace. The language and priorities reflect a clear reaction to export controls, geopolitical tech rivalry and the desire to reduce dependence on foreign inputs for critical equipment.

But the plan is not a blank cheque for boundless state investment; it balances ambition with caution. Authorities emphasise efficient capital allocation, reducing wasteful subsidy arms races, and a stronger role for market mechanisms in maturation of industries. Commentators note the push for self-reliance comes alongside efforts to avoid large, distortionary overcapacity and to improve returns on state capital. The government also signals an intention to lift domestic demand, upgrading social safety nets and consumer services to rebalance growth away from over-dependence on investment and property. This is a calibrated strategy: mobilise state power where deemed strategic, but temper spending and seek higher quality of investment.

Operationally, the plan will likely translate into targeted industrial clusters, more public-private research consortia, and incentives for domestic suppliers to move upstream in the technology stack. For foreign businesses, the signal is mixed: opportunities to supply to rapidly expanding domestic markets in green energy, EVs, and cloud/AI services, but also heightened competition from subsidised domestic champions and potential pressure from import-substitution policies in sensitive sectors. Analysts caution that the outcome will hinge on implementation details, whether the plan’s “self-reliance” is interpreted narrowly as developing domestic alternatives for a few chokepoints, or broadly as systematic import substitution across many tech categories.

For global markets, the 15th Five-Year Plan matters because it will shape supply-chain choices, R&D flows and geoeconomic competition over the next decade. The immediate investor takeaway: favour firms and sectors aligned to China’s strategic priorities (advanced manufacturing, energy transition, key AI infrastructure) while monitoring policy signals that could alter market access or raise compliance and localization costs. Longer term, the plan underscores China’s intent to accelerate its climb up the value chain, a trajectory that will reconfigure industrial competition worldwide.