Chung Yuan: Hong Kong property prices are expected to rebound by more than 40% from the low in the next three years. The new uptrend could sustain for six years with a rebound of 85%.

Chairman Shi Yongqing of Zhongyuan Group predicts that Hong Kong property prices will surpass the peak of the property market in 2021 within three years, with an increase of 41.85% compared to the low point in March of this year. He also believes that this upward trend could continue for six years, from 2025 to 2031, with an increase of 85% compared to the low point of 134.89 points. Shi Yongqing pointed out that the Hong Kong property market only fell for three years before rebounding this time, with a decline of about 30%, which is much smaller than the decline after the 1997 Asia Financial Crisis, and the duration of the decline was also much shorter. Between 1997 and 2003, residential property prices in Hong Kong fell by 70%, lasting for six years. Generally speaking, the more severe the decline in property prices, the stronger the rebound momentum. He believes that because the decline in property prices this time was relatively mild, he estimates that the rebound in Hong Kong property prices this time will also be relatively mild. For example, the low point of Zhongyuan City Leading Index in 2003 was 31.77 points, which rose to a high of 191.34 points in 2021, an increase of 159.57 points, which is five times higher. However, Shi Yongqing predicts that this time the increase will not be as high, but at least it will surpass the previous peak. That is, the Zhongyuan City Leading Index of 191.34 points level, compared to the low point of 134.89 points in March of this year, can increase by 41.85%. He expects that this target can be achieved within three years, and if the upward trend continues for another three years, that is, rising to 250 points by 2031. He expects that this upward trend could last for six years, from 2025 to 2031, with an increase of 85% compared to the low point of 134.89 points.