Essence of securities morning meeting | Supply pressure shifts to demand-driven, lithium carbonate is expected to usher in a new cycle

The market experienced a volatile adjustment yesterday, with the three major indices opening low and closing lower. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, AI applications, software development, and other sectors saw the highest increase, while sectors such as batteries, coal, and steel saw the biggest declines. By the end of yesterday's trading, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.16%. At today's morning meeting of securities firms, China Securities Co., Ltd. pointed out that supply pressures are shifting towards demand-driven growth, and lithium carbonate is expected to usher in a new cycle; Zhongtai stated that they are optimistic about the comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector; Huatai suggested to continue monitoring the progress of the "Thousand Questions" project related businesses and the corresponding upstream targets benefiting from AI infrastructure. China Securities Co., Ltd.: Supply pressure shifting towards demand-driven growth, lithium carbonate expected to usher in a new cycle China Securities Co., Ltd. stated that strong demand has led to monthly-level shortages of lithium carbonate and inventory reduction. According to Mysteel data, the supply of lithium carbonate in November was approximately 115,000 tons, while demand was 128,000 tons, resulting in a shortage of about 13,000 tons. The market continues to reduce inventory. At the same time, with weak demand in the off-season, order support can continue into next year. Currently, the contradiction between supply and demand for lithium carbonate has shifted from supply pressures to demand-driven growth. In the medium to long term, the continued strong demand for energy storage, the entire lithium battery industry chain experiencing a round of price increases, and the fundamental supply and demand of lithium carbonate have been greatly improved. Looking ahead, the global lithium resource supply is projected to be 208.9 million tons in 2026, with consumption at 200.4 million tons. Without considering positive electrode links and traders' stocking situations, the surplus is only 85,000 tons, narrower than in 2025. With the consideration of industry chain stocking, there will be a structural shortage in 2026, and the driving force for lithium prices will shift from supply pressures to demand-driven growth. Zhongtai: Optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector Zhongtai stated that they are optimistic about a comprehensive bull market in the non-ferrous sector. 1. Industrial metals: Several major mines have successively experienced unexpected disruptions, leading to a significant downward revision of global copper mine increments next year. With electricity shortages expected overseas, disturbances in the supply of electrolytic aluminum are also frequent. Traditional demand on the demand side is expected to benefit from a global downturn in interest rates. The recovery, although the growth rate of new energy demand is declining, the proportion continues to rise. The electricity demand brought by AI is also expected to provide increments. Industrial metals will usher in a moment of macroeconomic resonance with the fundamentals. It is optimistic that copper and aluminum commodity prices will continue to rise. Although stock prices are mostly at new highs at the stock level, this is more due to the rise in commodity prices and the realization of company growth, and valuations remain at a neutral to low level. 2. Energy metals: With the continuous increase in energy storage demand expectations, the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate next year has been significantly improved from the previous surplus expectation. Equity performance is worth looking forward to under the expectation of industry bottoming out. After the implementation of an export ban in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, cobalt prices have risen sharply, and with supply constraints next year, the supply and demand will remain tight, with price expectations. 3. Precious metals: Against the background of overseas currency overissuance and the continuous weakening of fiscal discipline, the reshaping of the US dollar credit system has become a trend. The logic of long-term price increase in gold has not changed. Stock performance has significantly lagged behind the continuously rising prices of gold. The current stock valuation level is at a historical low, welcoming a good layout moment. Huatai: Suggestions to continue monitoring the progress of "Thousand Questions" project related businesses and the corresponding upstream targets benefiting from AI infrastructure Huatai stated that on November 17th, Alibaba officially announced the launch of the "Thousand Questions" project, and the public beta version of the Thousand Questions app was also launched on the same day. According to ZhiDongXi, Alibaba's core management views the Thousand Questions project as the "future battle of the AI era." The public beta version of the Thousand Questions app, with its free nature and integration with various life scenarios, will compete comprehensively with ChatGPT. In addition, according to LatePost, the new Thousand Questions application is benchmarked against ChatGPT's latest version 5.1, which is an upgrade from the previous Tongyi app and Quark AI assistant, integrating Alibaba's latest Qwen3-Max model from the Tongyi Lab. Alibaba's move signifies that the domestic AI competition is further extending to the application layer. It is recommended to continue monitoring the progress of related businesses and the corresponding upstream targets benefiting from AI infrastructure. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe". Editing: Chen Xiaoyi.