CITIC SEC: Mass production of perovskite batteries enters accelerated phase, focusing on investment opportunities in related components and equipment.

CITIC SEC released a research report stating that perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cells are considered the most promising next-generation photovoltaic cell technology due to their excellent electrical and optical performance, as well as higher theoretical photoelectric conversion efficiency. Since 2025, multiple quasi-GW-level perovskite production lines, such as JiDian GuangNeng and XinXin GuangDian, have been put into mass production, accelerating the industrialization process of perovskite. The firm estimates that by 2030, global perovskite component shipments may reach around 20GW, with a market value of approximately 20 billion yuan, corresponding to a CAGR of over 200% from 2025 to 2030; the expansion period will also stimulate significant demand for coating, coating, laser, and other equipment, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in perovskite components and equipment. It is recommended to focus on investment opportunities in the perovskite industry along the following main threads: 1) perovskite cell components: recommended investment opportunities in leading perovskite and crystalline silicon companies with first-mover advantages; 2) perovskite equipment: recommended high-value perovskite coating and laser equipment segments; 3) perovskite auxiliary materials: recommended attention to currently high-value TCO glasses and other segments. Key viewpoints from CITIC SEC are as follows: Perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cells: the most promising next-generation photovoltaic cell technology. Perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cells refer to a new hybrid organo-inorganic CECEP Solar Energy cell with a perovskite (ABX3) structure as the light-absorbing layer. Perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cells have excellent electrical and optical performance, are cost-effective, and easy to prepare. According to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, perovskite cells can easily achieve higher photoelectric conversion efficiency than the current theoretical efficiency limit of crystalline silicon cells at 29.4%, with the potential to reach an efficiency limit of 45% after being prepared as a stacked cell. Therefore, perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cells are also considered the most promising next-generation photovoltaic technology. Current perovskite component costs are relatively high, but there is significant room for cost reduction through scaling and technological iterations. The firm calculates that the total unit material cost of current perovskite PV modules is approximately 0.95 yuan/W, with FTO conductive glass and backsheet glass accounting for 45% and 18% of the material costs, respectively, as significant sources of material costs. Due to the relatively small scale of perovskite projects currently, the firm estimates that the unit equipment investment cost of a 500MW-level production line project is nearly 800 million yuan/GW, still with significant room for reduction. The firm calculates that the current production cost of perovskite components is 1.63 yuan/W, and with technological iterations and scaling, material and equipment costs are expected to see significant reductions. The firm predicts that the future unit cost of perovskite components is likely to gradually match or even be lower than the cost of crystalline silicon components (approximately 0.7 yuan/W). The industrialization process of perovskite is accelerating, and production lines have entered the "GW" level phase. According to various companies' official websites, several domestic start-up companies, such as JiDian GuangNeng, XinXin GuangDian, XianNa GuangDian, and RenXiu GuangDian, have actively entered the perovskite CECEP Solar Energy cell and module fields. In February 2025, JiDian GuangNeng's global first quasi-GW-level production line went into mass production, expected to produce 1.8 million perovskite PV modules annually; in the same month, RenXiu GuangNeng's GW-level perovskite project groundbreaking ceremony was held in Changshu, Jiangsu, with production expected to start in early 2026; in June 2025, XinXin GuangDian's GW-level facility in Kunshan, Jiangsu, officially went into production, becoming the world's first GW-level perovskite stacked module production base; in addition, XianNa GuangDian's quasi-GW-level perovskite production line is also planning to start production in early 2026. The future market space for perovskite cells is vast, stimulating equipment investment demand. Considering the significant efficiency advantages and application potential in the stacked field, the firm predicts that perovskite components will achieve a key breakthrough from "1" to "10" in the coming years. By 2030, global perovskite PV component shipments are expected to reach around 20GW, with a market value of approximately 20 billion yuan, corresponding to a CAGR of 243% from 2025 to 2030. The rapid development of perovskite components will also drive significant growth in equipment demand. The firm predicts that by 2030, the market space for perovskite component equipment could reach 10 billion yuan, corresponding to a CAGR of approximately 74% from 2025 to 2030, and equipment investment demand will be significantly released during the perovskite expansion period. Currently, the localization rate of perovskite equipment is continuously increasing, supporting the scale development of the perovskite industry. Risk factors: Global PV installation growth below expectations; sustained high raw material prices; slower-than-expected development of perovskite cell technology; uncertainties in overseas trade; lower-than-expected cost reductions of perovskite cells; increased future competition in perovskite cells.