Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Strong demand for energy storage, institutions are optimistic about the continued rise of lithium carbonate prices (with concept stocks)

The demand for energy storage at home and abroad is strong. The tapering off of the new energy vehicle purchase tax rebate policy in 2026 may trigger a rush to purchase at the end of the year. The domestic production of lithium batteries continues to increase, leading to increased demand for upstream lithium cathode materials. Some top material manufacturers are already operating at full capacity, causing orders to overflow to second and third tier material manufacturers. With a booming industrial chain downstream, the demand for lithium carbonate has increased, causing a supply gap. As a result, nearly 10,000 tons of lithium carbonate stock in China has been accelerated to be cleared after the fourth quarter, driving the lithium prices continuously up. According to China Securities Co., Ltd., the strong demand has led to a monthly shortage and destocking of lithium carbonate. According to Mysteel data, the monthly supply of lithium carbonate in November was about 115,000 tons, while the demand was 128,000 tons, resulting in a shortage of about 13,000 tons. Meanwhile, despite the off-peak season, consumption remains strong, and order support is expected to continue into next year. The contradiction between supply and demand for lithium carbonate has shifted from supply pressure to consumption-driven. Looking ahead, the sustained strength of energy storage demand in the long term has driven the entire lithium industry chain to experience a round of price increases, and the supply and demand fundamentals of lithium carbonate have been significantly improved. In a static forecast, the global lithium resource supply in 2026 is expected to be 208.9 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 200.4 million tons. Without considering the cathode process and traders' restocking, the surplus is only 85,000 tons, which is narrower than in 2025. Considering the industry chain inventory, a structural shortage of lithium carbonate is expected in 2026, and the lithium price driver will shift from supply pressure to demand-driven upward trend. Zhongtai's report suggests that with the expectation of continued growth in energy storage demand, the supply and demand situation for lithium carbonate next year is expected to significantly improve from the previous surplus expectation. Therefore, the performance of related equities in the industry is worth looking forward to. A researcher from Da Di Futures stated that in 2026, the lithium carbonate market is expected to show a strong supply-demand structure, with global supply expected to be 207.8 million tons and demand at 197.7 million tons, showing a significant improvement in surplus compared to this year. The bottom of lithium carbonate prices has been seen in 2025, and prices are expected to continue to rise, but because of the high volatility of this commodity, the rebound will not be immediate. Related Hong Kong-listed companies in the lithium carbonate industry chain include Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772), Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696), and Zhong Wei New Material (02579).