Next Thursday, the "data frenzy" is coming to the United States, which is crucial for the market.

After the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, a backlog of economic data will be released intensively, providing crucial basis for the market and the Federal Reserve to assess the economic situation. The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have announced a detailed schedule, with data releases scheduled to begin next Thursday. During the shutdown, more than 30 important economic reports were delayed or canceled, including key indicators such as employment, inflation, and GDP. While the upcoming data will provide some support for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, economists point out that the "fog" caused by the information gap may take time to fully dissipate. It is worth noting that the release of some key data remains uncertain. The U.S. Department of Labor has indicated that the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October is still uncertain, as about two-thirds of the price data needs to be collected in person and cannot be supplemented through retrospective methods. Intensive release schedule for key data confirmed The U.S. Department of Commerce and the Department of Labor have finalized the release schedule for the backlog of data. On November 20, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September nonfarm payroll report, and on November 21, the agency will release the September real wage data. The U.S. Department of Commerce stated that the revised GDP for the third quarter will be released at 8:30 am on November 26, and on the same day, personal income, spending, and the PCE price index for October will also be published. In addition, the international trade report for October will be released at 8:30 am on December 4, and on December 19, the Department of Commerce will publish the final GDP for the third quarter. According to Morgan Stanley's forecast, the Federal Reserve will be able to access complete data, including September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the initial GDP estimates for the third quarter, before the interest rate meeting on December 9-10. The key lies in whether the employment reports for October and November can be released in a timely manner. Data gap casts shadow over Fed decisions The 43-day government shutdown has created an unprecedented data gap, affecting the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economic situation. Torsten Slk, Chief Economist at Apollo, stated that the market was in a "very dark and foggy" state during the shutdown, and although the fog is dissipating, it will not clear up completely in the short term. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has emphasized that the decision to lower interest rates in December is not a "foregone conclusion," and the missing data could affect the committee's decision. He previously stated: "What would you do when driving in the fog? You slow down." Barclays economist Marc Giannoni pointed out that there is a serious division within the Federal Open Market Committee regarding the pace and timing of rate cuts, and the lack of new data makes it difficult for members to change their positions. If enough data cannot be obtained before the December meeting, it could lead to a "fairly intense meeting." Uncertainty surrounds the restoration of some core indicators While the September employment data will be released as scheduled, the October data faces challenges. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned that October inflation and employment data are "highly unlikely" to be released, and any data that are released will be "permanently damaged." National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told the media, "We will get half of the employment report. We will get the employment part, but we will not get the unemployment rate, that's just one month's situation." Former Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics McEntarfer pointed out that consumer price data faces greater challenges. About two-thirds of price data needs to be collected in person from stores and must be done in real-time. "You can't walk into Costco in mid-November and ask about the price of a certain item in October, that's why the October CPI couldn't be realized." The data gap will affect Social Security payments linked to inflation and businesses' hiring and inventory decisions before the holiday season. RBC economist Mike Reid stated that businesses have been dealing with uncertainties such as trade policies and consumer spending, and it may take several months for data to return to normal. This article was originally published by "Wall Street Vision" and written by Li Jia; GMTEight editor: Yan Wencai.