Guotai Haitong: Liquidity crisis eased, gold returns to an upward trend.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that with the end of the US government shutdown, the expected decrease in the US Treasury account balance has begun, and with the easing of market liquidity, short-term suppressive factors for gold have been lifted. In the long-term context of de-dollarization, it is expected that key US economic data will be disclosed again after the end of the government shutdown, and the Federal Reserve will reassess the operation of the US economy. Although there is still some uncertainty in the magnitude of the US interest rate cut in December 2025, the path and space for a rate cut in 2026, the trend of US rate cuts will not change, providing mid-term support for the price of gold. Key points from Guotai Haitong: - The easing of US liquidity crisis, short-term suppressive factors for gold removed - The Federal Reserve's interest rate path may dominate the medium-term trend of gold, paying attention to the impact of the change of Federal Reserve Chairman on market expectations - Central bank gold purchases continue, de-dollarization remains a long-term driver of gold's upward trend - Maintain a "hold" rating for the precious metals industry In the context of de-dollarization in the long term, with gold gradually rising in status as a metal currency, the loose US liquidity brought about by the US interest rate cycle may lead to a weaker US dollar, while the continued strong behavior of central banks in purchasing gold will provide support for the medium to long-term price of gold. Risk reminder: US employment data exceeding expectations, uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy.