Cui Dongshu: The overall trend of the national automobile market in October is relatively strong, and the commercial vehicle market is experiencing structural growth.

Cui Dongshu stated in an article that under the promotion fee policy of the country, the automobile market has maintained strong growth. The overall trend of the national automobile market in October was strong, with the truck market and passenger car market showing significant signs of recovery. Due to the slow speed of retail transmission driving wholesale, the retail sales in October 2024 were significantly stronger than wholesale, resulting in negative growth in passenger car retail sales in October of this year. However, due to exports and inventory increases, the manufacturer's sales growth rate in October remained good. The trend of new energy vehicles in October was strong, and the export market for automobiles continued to strengthen, with significant changes in manufacturer inventory, leading to increased industry pressure. The commercial vehicle market in October saw structural growth driven by new energy, with acceleration in the electrification of logistics and transportation vehicles and pickup trucks. 1. Different trends for automobiles and commercial vehicles in 2025 In recent years, there has been a significant differentiation between automobiles and commercial vehicles, with commercial vehicles weakening while passenger car consumption improves. In 2025, driven by policy factors, passenger cars showed a growth rate of 13%, which was relatively good, while commercial vehicles showed a strong trend due to electrification. The trend of new energy commercial vehicles was significantly stronger than last year, with strong growth in the passenger car market, including micro-buses. The policy of trading in old vehicles for new ones had a significant impact on passenger cars, especially during the effective period of the policy. Some regions that had temporarily suspended the policy have begun to resume it. The comprehensive governance work in the industry has shown positive progress, with local car shows being held, new products from companies being launched intensively, and the overall trend of the car market remaining strong. 2. A strong start for the automobile market in 2025 From January to October 2025, the total sales of automobiles reached 27.52 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12%. In October, the total sales of automobiles reached 3.32 million units, an increase of 9% compared to the same period last year. Subsidies for the year drove high retail growth in the first half of the year, while wholesale growth was slower. The retail growth rate from July to October weakened, but the manufacturer's sales remained strong. 3. Dramatic differences in performance among major automotive groups Compared to the chart for 2021, some car companies showed strong performance in 2022, leading to a serious differentiation in industry growth rates. The epidemic at the beginning of 2022 put significant pressure on traditional car companies, especially with the impact of new energy and the epidemic. State-owned large groups showed significant differentiation, with Guangqi and Chery performing well, especially in the commercial vehicle and passenger car sectors. Companies from the north such as FAW, Great Wall, and BAIC all faced pressure. The trend of the car market shifted during the beginning of 2023 with the promotion of new energy vehicles. The top three central state-owned enterprises showed significant differentiation, with some state-owned enterprises falling behind. New energy companies like BYD and Tesla performed well; Chery and Tesla had relatively strong performances this year. The performance of second-tier car companies varied, with significant pressure from the conversion of old and new energies and continued losses from new energy vehicles, resulting in severe differentiation and stagnation among small and medium-sized independent brands. The lineup of automotive groups underwent comprehensive changes in 2024, with Chery, Geely, and Dongfeng performing well due to strong demand for passenger cars and overseas contributions, while SAIC remained in a steep decline. Sales of new energy cars from BYD and Tesla showed differing growth rates. The landscape of car manufacturers changed drastically, with the industry showing dramatic growth differentials. Private enterprises began to replace state-owned enterprises as the main force in the industry in 2025, with Geely, BYD, Chery, and Great Wall maintaining high growth rates. This trend appears to be sustainable. SAIC and Dongfeng showed strong performances in October of this year, with improved growth rates. Overall, manufacturer sales in October showed a stronger trend. Some manufacturers, such as Geely Auto and BYD, showed stronger trends compared to September, while others like Geely, Wuling, and Dongfeng showed stronger trends compared to the same period last year. However, some manufacturers, such as SAIC Volkswagen, showed a significant adjustment in sales compared to the same period last year. 4. Trends in production and sales of narrow passenger car enterprises From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars reached 23.76 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12%. In October, the cumulative sales of narrow passenger cars reached 2.93 million units, an increase of 7% compared to the same period last year. In recent years, the continuous technological innovation of new energy vehicles and the growing competitiveness of new products have led to weak launches of fuel vehicles. After the Spring Festival in 2025, new energy vehicles experienced rapid growth, with the car market maintaining a strong development from May to September at a rate of 14%. October saw a high base, but the growth rate of passenger cars remained strong. In October, major car companies overall showed a strong trend, with independent brands leading the way and joint venture companies improving significantly in October. BYD led the way, followed by Geely Auto and Chery, maintaining third place in October. The scales of the top three companies are becoming increasingly similar. Joint ventures like FAW Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen showed relatively stable performances. The main players in the passenger car market rapidly differentiated, with companies focusing on new energy vehicles showing stronger performances. The differentiation among independent brands was particularly pronounced. In 2023, the total retail sales of narrow passenger cars by manufacturers reached 21.7 million units, with a growth rate of 6%. In 2024, the total sales reached 22.89 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5%. In October 2025, the total retail sales of narrow passenger cars reached 2.24 million units, a decrease of 1% compared to the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the total retail sales reached 19.24 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%, with a trend of declining growth rates in October. 5. Trends in production and sales of new energy passenger car enterprises In 2024, new energy passenger car sales showed a good trend with a growth rate of 38%, reaching 12.24 million units. This growth was driven by scrappage replacement subsidies, price reductions from manufacturers, and the launch of new models. In October 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars reached 1.62 million units, an 18% increase compared to the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the total wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 12.07 million units, a 30% increase year-on-year. In October, Chery and Wuling showed a stronger month-on-month trend, while companies like Tesla had slower growth in October. The car market across the country showed significant differentiation, with large differences in growth rates between provinces and among manufacturers. 6. Trends in production and sales of traditional fuel passenger car enterprises In 2023, sales of traditional fuel narrow passenger cars reached 16.66 million units, holding steady from the same period in 2022. In 2024, sales of traditional narrow passenger cars dropped to 14.95 million units, a 10% year-on-year decrease from the previous year. From January to October 2025, sales reached 11.69 million units, a 2% decrease year-on-year, with a 4% drop in October. The continuous decline in conventional passenger cars in previous periods brought significant market pressure, but from June to October, the market showed positive growth. Recent trends in traditional cars have been relatively positive, but the impact of new energy prices continues to be felt. It is hoped that traditional cars will stabilize and resume growth. The dominance of joint venture companies in conventional fuel passenger cars is gradually changing, with Chery, Geely, Great Wall, and the top three joint ventures showing relatively strong market performances. FAW Volkswagen remains the absolute leader in joint ventures, while independent brands lack a clear advantage in fuel vehicles compared to joint ventures, which still have strong technological foundations in fuel vehicles. 7. Trends in production and sales of passenger car enterprises In 2023, the total sales of commercial vehicles reached 750,000 units, with a 3% year-on-year increase; in 2024, total commercial vehicle sales reached 800,000 units, with a 6% year-on-year increase. From January to October 2025, total sales reached 750,000 units, with a 21% year-on-year increase, and in October, total sales were 73,000 units, a 5% year-on-year increase. The promotion of new energy logistics vehicles has had a significant impact. At the beginning of 2025, there was a relatively strong trend in the commercial vehicle market. From February to April 2025, sales of top manufacturers surged, with strong month-on-month growth in August and September. In October, Chang'an saw a 13% decrease, while Dongfeng and Zotye saw a 19% decrease, reflecting fluctuations in market demand for light commercial and micro-commercial vehicles. Wuling, Chang'an, Dongfeng, and Xinyuan showed good performances in the commercial vehicle market. The recovery in the micro-commercial segment driven by new energy vehicles and the strong stimulating effect of vehicle purchase tax exemptions are expected to continue. 8. Trends in production and sales of truck enterprises In 2023, total truck sales reached 3.54 million units, with a 19% year-on-year increase; in 2024, total truck sales reached 3.35 million units, a 3% year-on-year decrease; from January to October 2025, total truck sales reached 3.02 million units, with a 9% year-on-year increase, and in October, truck sales reached 310,000 units, a 22% year-on-year increase. In 2025, there was a clear differentiation among the main players in the truck market, with top manufacturers showing strong performances. FAW, SinoTruck, and Wuling Motors saw significant year-on-year increases compared to October of the previous year, while Wuling Motors and Chang'an's light-duty trucks showed strong performances year-on-year in October. There was a significant increase in heavy-duty trucks in 2025, with pure electric heavy trucks performing well. FAW, Shaanxi Auto, and SinoTruck showed strong growth rates, leading to a stable industry landscape.