After the U.S. government restarts, key economic data will be rescheduled. The first "missing" report will be released next Thursday.

After the U.S. government ended the shutdown and federal agencies resumed operations, the market quickly shifted its focus to when the delayed key economic data would return. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that the first official data that was "missing" due to the shutdown, the September nonfarm payroll report, will be released one hour before the opening of the U.S. stock market next Thursday. This is the first key signal for Wall Street after a long period of "data vacuum," indicating that the suspended economic information is beginning to flow back into the market. On the day after the nonfarm data is released, the BLS will also release the "real income" report. Due to the October average hourly wage data not being released, the real income indicator was unable to be published in sync with the CPI, and real income is an important component of consumer purchasing power changes. It is noteworthy that the only data that was able to be released on time during the shutdown was the September CPI, as this reading is used to calculate the annual cost-of-living adjustments for social security benefits and therefore must be released on time. However, even with the nonfarm data being released soon, the complete employment report may still not include the unemployment rate. This is because the unemployment rate comes from household surveys which rely on telephone interviews and written questionnaires, which were unable to be conducted during the shutdown and may be difficult to catch up on afterwards. In comparison, the nonfarm data comes from "hard data" on the employer side, relying on time cards and payroll records, making it easier to restore. More uncertainty lies in the fact that as of Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce and its Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have not yet released a new schedule for data, including the release dates for key indicators such as GDP and PCE. This data gap not only puts pressure on market sentiment but also creates a bigger policy challenge for the Federal Reserve. Bank of America economists stated that the shutdown brought about a "data fog," forcing the market and the Federal Reserve to rely on alternative data to assess the economic situation. With the government reopening, "all eyes will be focused on the upcoming flood of data." Some data may even never be caught up, such as the October CPI report. Due to the BLS collecting a large amount of price data on-site, this data collection was halted during the shutdown and cannot be traced afterwards, meaning that the complete CPI reading for October may be missing. Meanwhile, government officials have stated that data will be gradually caught up, but have not yet provided complete details. The Secretary of Labor mentioned that wage and price data must undergo accuracy checks before being released, and the White House has also requested to ensure the accuracy of the November data. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may still receive the employment data for September, October, and November before the December policy meeting, but whether this can be smoothly caught up on still depends on the progress of relevant agencies in the coming weeks. In addition to the nonfarm and CPI data, the BLS also needs to restore various statistics such as import and export prices, job vacancies, producer prices, labor productivity, and the Department of Labor is also responsible for reporting the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits each week. The Department of Commerce controls heavyweight data such as personal income and spending (including the PCE inflation preferred by the Federal Reserve), GDP, retail sales, trade balance, durable goods orders, among others. The U.S. Census Bureau, a part of the Department of Commerce, announced on Friday that it will release August construction spending, factory orders, and international trade data next week. These data were delayed due to the federal government shutdown. The construction spending report will be released on Monday, the factory orders data will be released the next day, and the trade balance will be released on Wednesday. The agency stated in a press release, "The U.S. Census Bureau will continue to coordinate with other agencies and the Office of Management and Budget to update the release schedule of economic indicators in response to the recent interruption of federal funding. We will provide updates as soon as the new release dates are determined."