Behind the trillion yuan sales of the "Double Eleven" grand promotion, Hong Kong stocks consumer and technology sectors are "waiting for the wind to come".

With the conclusion of this year's Double 11 event, Tmall's total transaction volume reached 540.3 billion yuan, steadily increasing compared to last year; JD.com's total order amount for November 11 exceeded 349.1 billion yuan, reaching a new historical high. The two platforms together surpassed the 890 billion yuan mark. In the micro niche, TikTok saw a 500% year-on-year increase in live sales for over 41,000 merchants, indicating the active nature of live streaming e-commerce channels. According to data calculated by Fudan University's Consumer Market Big Data Laboratory, the total online retail sales during this year's Double 11 period reached nearly 2.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of over 10%. It is worth mentioning that during this year's Double 11 event, the "AI+ e-commerce" model was frequently mentioned. With AI technology accelerating towards commercial applications, more and more online e-commerce platforms hope to leverage AI to create a "second growth curve". However, this trend is reflected differently in various sectors of the Hong Kong stock market involving e-commerce, showing different investment logic and market trends. Consumer sector: The rebound of "high cost performance" It can be observed that since reaching a temporary low of 2580.36 points recently, the Hang Seng Consumer Index has experienced nearly 6 consecutive days of continuous rebound. From a policy perspective, on November 7th, the Ministry of Finance issued a report on the implementation of China's fiscal policies in the first half of 2025, emphasizing the continued implementation of measures to boost consumer spending. On November 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that as the effects of policies to stimulate domestic demand continued to show, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year from the previous month, with the core CPI excluding food and energy prices also continuing to rise for the sixth consecutive month. In addition, the new tax-free policy implemented on November 1st has added popular items such as mobile phones and sports goods, which is also beneficial for related consumer chain companies in the Hong Kong stock market. In terms of direct impact factors, unlike the consumer concepts in A-share markets that focus mainly on liquor and food, consumer concept stocks in the Hong Kong stock market cover e-commerce, trendy toys, new tea drinks, domestic beauty, and other scarce tracks, with more than 60% of the service consumption market share. This aligns well with the current Double 11 sales promotion. From a valuation perspective, the valuation of the Hang Seng Consumer Index is currently at historical lows, offering a significant cost advantage. After reaching a temporary high of 2998.67 points on August 26th this year, the Hang Seng Consumer Index entered a sustained downward channel, hitting a temporary low of 2580.36 points on November 5th with a cumulative maximum downside of 13.95%, pushing valuation to a low level. Wind data shows that the PE-TTM of the Hang Seng Consumer Index is only 17.79 times, which is at the 22.04% of the valuation percentile over the past 10 years. Therefore, after a long-term adjustment in the consumer sector of the Hong Kong stock market, valuations have returned to a reasonable range, providing a natural margin of safety. As a core sector in a cyclical field, the performance of Double 11 sales is expected to drive the sector to achieve a match between valuation and value, providing some room for potential steady growth in the future. In other words, after the 5-month performance vacuum period following the third quarterly report, market funds may choose to switch styles to the consumer sector, which is continuously expanding policy, improving data support, and with the advantage of a valuation dip. In addition, this trend is also supported by liquidity: on November 10th, through the Hong Kong stock connect program, southbound funds purchased a net 6.654 billion Hong Kong dollars, pushing the net purchase amount for the year past 1.3 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and the cumulative net inflow since the opening of the program exceeding 5 trillion Hong Kong dollars, breaking the record since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism. Recently, a number of leading stocks in the new consumption class e-commerce scene, such as MIXUE GROUP (02097), AUNTEA JENNY (02589), MAO GEPING (01318), and GUOQUAN (02517) in the Hong Kong stock market saw significant stock price increases, reflecting the optimism of southbound investors in the consumer sector of the Hong Kong stock market driven by policy stimulation and positive performance during the Double 11 event. Can "AI+ e-commerce" spark a spark in the Hong Kong Internet Index? In this year's Double 11 event, the concept of "AI+ e-commerce" was frequently mentioned on platforms and in the media, with Taobao explicitly stating that 2025 will be the first year for comprehensive AI landing on Tmall Double 11. For example, Taobao has introduced multiple free AI shopping and search functions for consumers, including "AI assistant" and "AI universal search", which are all focused on AI shopping scenarios. The AI assistant focuses on scenarios where users have a clear shopping goal but uncertain specific needs, positioning itself as "smart shopping". In addition to core search functions, this year's Tmall Double 11 event also introduced five C-end AI applications including "Taobao snap", "AI help me choose", and "AI try clothes". Apart from Taobao, various domestic platforms during this year's Double 11 event also enhanced their ToB AI tools for merchants to accelerate operational efficiency and focus on customer service and live streaming in order to alleviate the manpower and cost pressures for small and medium-sized businesses during major promotions. Behind the implementation of AI applications is the continuous investment in AI by several internet and technology companies in the Hong Kong stock market. Since the beginning of this year, leading companies such as TENCENT (00700) and Alibaba have exceeded their performance expectations and have announced further investment plans in the AI field. For example, in the first half of this year, the total capital expenditure of Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu increased by 131% year-on-year to 116.6 billion yuan, focusing on AI infrastructure and core technological research and development. Tencent had previously estimated that its capital spending by 2025 would reach one trillion yuan; BABA-W (09988) also clearly stated that it would continue to increase capital expenditure on top of the 380 billion yuan invested in the past three years. This has allowed Alibaba's Tongyi Q&A to gradually penetrate into the three major scenarios of retail, finance, and manufacturing, with a global download volume exceeding 600 million times and surpassing 17,000 derivative models, overtaking the American Llama large model series, ranking first globally. However, in the secondary market, although the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index experienced a significant uptrend in September this year, reaching a peak of 3572.70 points, the index has also seen a clear correction since October. From a technical perspective, after a continuous technical correction in the first half of October, the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index briefly dropped below the 60-day moving average on October 17th, marking the first time in the second half of this year that the index fell below the 60-day line, with the index operating predominately below the 60-day line since November. After this round of correction, the PE (TTM) of the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index is 21.89 times, ranked at the 17.18% valuation percentile over the past 10 years, and even looking at data from the past 5 years, the PE is at the 34.04% percentile, indicating that there is still room for improvement in the overall valuation of this sector. At the policy level, similar to the consumer sector, the internet technology sector will also benefit from recent domestic policies. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to accelerate the digitalization of industries and the integration of digital economy with the real economy, empowering the development of new productive forces through strengthening, optimizing, and expanding the digital economy. This policy will also drive AI to move from being a "concept" to the actual application of landing. For investors, this year's Double 11 event can be seen as a classic case of AI's scale empowerment and scene implementation. As "AI+" applications in major component companies in the future stronger customer acquisition and monetization capabilities on the revenue side, becoming an important support for achieving economies of scale and cost efficiency, the Hong Kong Internet Technology sector is expected to steadily reach new heights after a brief correction.