Maintain a "Buy" rating on JD-SW (09618) with a target price of 190.96 Hong Kong dollars.

Orient released a research report maintaining a "buy" rating for JD-SW (09618), with an upward adjustment of forecasted revenue for 2025-2027 to 13312/14094/14856 billion yuan (previously forecasted as 13276/13967/14642 billion yuan) and adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of 271/438/525 billion yuan (previously forecasted as 228/436/520 billion yuan). Based on comparable companies, the company is given a 9XPE valuation for retail and new business in 2026, and the calculated target market value is 554.6 billion yuan, corresponding to a stock price of 190.96 Hong Kong dollars per share (exchange rate of 1.098 RMB to HKD). The bank estimates that JD Retail achieved revenue of 248.67 billion yuan in 25Q3, up 10.5% year-on-year, mainly due to the synergistic effect of the growth in traffic during the peak season for food delivery in Q3, partially offset by the base effect of government subsidy policies (starting from the end of August 24), therefore a faster year-on-year growth is expected while slower month-on-month growth is expected. It is predicted that the number of main site users and purchase frequency will maintain a close growth trend in 25Q3 compared to Q2. GMV in 25Q3 continues to grow at a double-digit rate, with 1PGMV expected to slow down slightly due to the base effect of government subsidies, and 3PGMV is expected to accelerate month-on-month, maintaining a double-digit high growth rate due to the main focus on the conversion of food delivery orders. In terms of profit, it is estimated that JD Retail's operating profit in Q3 will reach 13.67 billion yuan, with an OPM of 5.5%, mainly due to the optimization of the buying volume and the structure of subsidies under the synergistic effect of food delivery driving traffic growth on the main site. Overall, JD Retail is stable and improving, with the potential for steady growth in the short to medium term due to the synergistic effect of traffic brought by the optimization of the food delivery user experience.