Gold prices are soaring and resonating with e-commerce. Is the path of value return for Zhou Liu Fu (06168) pointing straight to 65 yuan?

In the shopping frenzy of "Double Eleven", the gold and jewelry category once again became one of the most eye-catching tracks. On the day of "Double Eleven", the prices of domestic gold jewelry welcomed a "jump", with the prices of top brands breaking through 1300 yuan/gram, and the highest daily increase reaching 37 yuan. Local jewelry giant ZHOU LIU FU, with its deep cultivation in e-commerce channels and precise layout of gold products, performed outstandingly on various platforms during "Double Eleven". Therefore, we can fully utilize the industry trend behind the heat of Double Eleven and take this valuable opportunity to demonstrate that the current value of ZHOU LIU FU is undervalued from the perspective of financial models and business fundamentals, and its reasonable target price should point to 65 yuan, with more than 20% upside potential from the current stock price. "Double Eleven" battle report: e-commerce winners in the gold hot wave Driven by the dual needs of "personal enjoyment consumption" and "value preservation and savings", the gold and jewelry category continued its high growth trend. Taking the live streaming room of Li Jiaqi, who has already brought products, as an example, during the Double "Double Eleven" period, related gold bar products online were quickly sold out, with over 10 million people watching online to attract traffic for the brand, and the online purchase penetration rate of gold consumers in third-tier cities surged to 48.6%. Driven by the gold consumption trend, ZHOU LIU FU's performance was particularly active. With the dual drive of "national trend aesthetics" and "ancient craftsmanship", it successfully captured the minds of young consumer groups. On the Tmall platform, ZHOU LIU FU's official flagship store sales remained at the forefront of jewelry and accessories; on the JD platform, sales achieved rapid year-on-year growth. Of particular note is that the proportion of gold products in ZHOU LIU FU's e-commerce business has consistently exceeded 50%. This structural change is significant: first, it conforms to the current market trend of "buying gold fever", directly driving overall revenue; second, high unit price gold products raise the profit ceiling of e-commerce channels; finally, this proves that ZHOU LIU FU's brand strength can already support high-value, low-risk tolerance online gold transactions, providing a strong brand endorsement for the expansion of its offline channels. Value decryption: Why is 65 yuan a reasonable value anchor point? Currently, ZHOU LIU FU's stock price has just surpassed the 50 yuan mark, and the capital market seems to have not yet fully priced in the reconfiguration of its growth momentum. Based on an analysis of its financial data and business prospects, it is believed that its fair value should be 65 yuan per share. The derivation of this target price is mainly based on the following mainstream PE valuation methods. Firstly, in terms of profit benchmarks, according to brokerage research reports, with the steady expansion of ZHOU LIU FU's store network (especially franchise stores) and the increasing proportion of high-margin products online, its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025 is expected to reach 1.23-1.7 billion yuan. Based on its total share capital of about 441 million shares, the corresponding earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be in the range of 2.8 to 3.8 yuan. We take the median 3.3 yuan as the basis for calculation. Secondly, we select several mainstream jewelry companies in the Hong Kong and A-share markets with business models similar to ZHOU LIU FU as benchmarks. These peer companies have an average forecasted price-earnings ratio (PE) of about 20-25 times in 2024. According to the formula: earnings per share (EPS) price-earnings ratio (PE) = target price, the target price for ZHOU LIU FU should be around 66 to 82.5. Therefore, the valuation level corresponding to the current stock price of about 50 yuan is significantly lower than the value its growth potential should have. In summary, based on the strong e-commerce growth curve validated by Double Eleven, as well as profit optimization driven by the gold category, from the perspective of relative valuation compared to peers, the fair value of ZHOU LIU FU points to 65 yuan. For investors focusing on medium to long-term value, the current price range may be a rare "gold digging" opportunity.