ADP's average over the past four weeks shows an increase in layoffs, deepening the weakness in U.S. employment.

According to data released by ADP Research on Tuesday, in the four weeks ending on October 25th, US companies on average laid off 11,250 employees per week, indicating a significant slowdown in labor market momentum in the second half of October compared to earlier in the month. Following ADP's employment data showing a slowdown in the US labor market, US Treasury futures surged, and the US dollar index declined. The futures for the 10-year US Treasury bonds rose, with the implied yield falling 4 basis points from Monday's close of 4.12%. Over-the-counter data linked to policy meeting dates showed an increase in market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 60%. In its monthly employment report released last week, ADP noted that the US private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, marking the first increase after two consecutive months of decline, but overall growth still appeared weak. Several large companies have recently announced layoff plans, indicating a trend towards caution in the face of high interest rates and economic uncertainty. A report released by placement consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that the total number of announced job cuts by US employers in October reached the highest level for the same period in over 20 years, sparking concerns about job prospects in the market. Survey data from the University of Michigan also showed that 71% of respondents expect the US unemployment rate to rise in the next year, the highest percentage since 1980, reflecting a continued decline in public confidence in the economy and labor market. Due to the ongoing longest government shutdown in US history, official non-farm employment reports for September and October have not been released, forcing the market to rely on data from private institutions like ADP for reference. ADP announced last month that it would regularly release a new employment indicator, the "private employment four-week moving average", which aims to reduce the impact of monthly or weekly fluctuations and provide a more stable and accurate reflection of the overall trends in the US labor market. Economists at Goldman Sachs predict that if employees participating in the "government deferred resignation program" are included in the statistics, total non-farm employment in the US may decrease by about 50,000 in October, implying further risks of deterioration in the labor market.