If the shutdown ends, a data flood will come! The Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting is imminent

Notice that with the growing confidence in the prediction markets that the U.S. federal government shutdown will end this week, the long-delayed economic data may soon flood the market. On the prediction platform Polymarket, most traders now expect the shutdown to end by Thursday (November 13), while the Kalshi platform points to a possible resolution by Friday of this week. If the shutdown does indeed end within this timeframe, U.S. federal data could resume publishing as early as next week, causing a backlog of reports to come in "like an avalanche". Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank stated, "Once the government reopens, the market will face a deluge of delayed data releases. Historical precedent from the 2013 shutdown suggests that the September employment report could be one of the first reports to be released, potentially within three working days of reopening." Therefore, according to Reid's speculation, if the government reopens this week, investors could potentially receive the September employment report as early as November 18. Deutsche Bank expects a significant rebound in nonfarm employment numbers, with both total and nonfarm private payrolls expected to increase by 75,000, and the unemployment rate to remain stable at 4.3%. If the government reopens on November 10, BNP Paribas predicts that the influx of delayed data will begin to be released in mid-November. The September employment report, originally scheduled for release on October 3, may be released on November 12, retail sales data shortly thereafter on November 21, GDP (third quarter) and PCE (September) data on November 26. The October employment report, originally scheduled for November 7, may also be released on the same day. An extension of the shutdown will delay all data releases by approximately a week. If reopened on November 17, most September data may not be released until late November or early December for example, GDP data on December 3, PCE data on December 4. If the deadlock continues until November 24, data releases could extend into mid-December, with GDP (third quarter) data released around December 9 and PCE (September) data on December 10. Later data such as October PCE, November employment, and November CPI may be further delayed until mid to late December. BNP Paribas points out that if the reopening process is swift, October CPI data may likely be skipped entirely and merged directly into the November data. The following table released by BNP Paribas analysts Neil Scevola and Mike Zacardy further explains the possible release dates for the data: Delayed reports include: trade balance, retail sales, durable goods orders, wholesale inventories, international goods trade preliminary report, retail inventory preliminary report, wholesale inventory preliminary report, GDP preliminary report, GDP chain index preliminary report, initial claims for unemployment insurance, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, employment cost index, personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, core PCE price index, initial productivity, initial unit labor cost, nonfarm employment numbers, nonfarm private employment numbers, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, average weekly hours, JOLTS job vacancy number. The originally scheduled release of October CPI and PPI data this week may also be delayed. Several media reports earlier stated that Senate negotiators had reached a temporary agreement aimed at ending this record-breaking government shutdown. A group of moderate Senate Democrats have agreed to support a proposal that would reopen the government and provide funding for several departments, including the Department of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, and Congress, until the end of the current fiscal year, while extending funding for other agencies until January 30. If the backlog of data starts to be released in large quantities from next week, the Federal Reserve and the market will have a lot of information to consider before the next interest rate meeting in December.