India plans to increase its sugar export quota to 1.5 million tons, putting further pressure on global sugar prices.

Due to concerns about a bumper sugar crop leading to oversupply, India is considering a proposal to allow sugar mills to export 1.5 million tons of sugar in the fiscal year 2025-26. According to sources familiar with the matter, the Indian Ministry of Food may make a decision on the proposal soon, but as the discussions involve internal matters, the sources requested anonymity. The proposed export quota is higher than the 1 million tons in the fiscal year 2024-25. The Indian Ministry of Food did not immediately respond to a request for comment. While increasing the export quota may help alleviate domestic oversupply pressure, the increase in global market supply could further impact benchmark prices. With rising production and weak demand from major importing countries like Indonesia and China, sugar prices on the New York futures market have already fallen by 27% this year. The Indian Sugar Industry Association recently urged the government to allow local sugar mills to export 2 million tons of sugar to avoid domestic oversupply, and to complete the exports before the new sugar from Brazil, the world's largest sugar producer, hits the market in April 2026. Officials in New Delhi had previously stated in September of this year that, based on industry forecasts, India has the potential to expand its exports in fiscal year 2025-2026. Looking back, the country had imposed export quota controls in the fiscal year 2022-2023 due to a decrease in production caused by late rains and tight domestic supply.