The minutes of the Bank of Japan's October meeting indicate that the earliest rate hike may occur in December.

The summary of the latest policy meeting of the Bank of Japan shows that the next rate hike could take place as early as December, in line with the expectations of most market participants. According to the summary of opinions of the policy meeting held in October released by the Bank of Japan on Monday, one of the nine members of the policy board stated, "The conditions for further progress towards normalizing policy rates are likely to have been basically met." The member also noted the need to continue monitoring underlying inflation trends. The summary shows that the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its policy unchanged at the meeting held over two days ending on October 30 by a vote of 7-2. The summary indicates that the nine members generally believe that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, consistent with recent remarks by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has hinted on several occasions that action may be taken in the coming months. Nearly all Bank of Japan watchers expect rates to rise by January next year, with the current focus of the market shifting to whether the rate hike will occur on December 19 or the following month. According to a survey last month, about half of Bank of Japan watchers expect a rate hike next month, while around 98% of respondents believe a rate hike will come no later than January next year. Following the release of the summary, the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar was around 153.80, slightly rebounding from the eight-month low of 154.48 set last week. However, it is worth mentioning that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated last Tuesday that Japan has not yet achieved sustainable inflation accompanied by wage growth, indicating her preference for the Bank of Japan to slow down its rate hike. Takaichi told the Japanese parliament that although the consumer price index is still hovering around 3% due to continuous increase in food prices, Japan has only "completed half of the task" in achieving sustainable and stable price growth supported by stable wage growth. Takaichi said, "I hope the Bank of Japan can implement appropriate monetary policies to achieve the sustainable and stable 2% inflation target." She has been advocating for expansionary fiscal and monetary policies. Takaichi's comments on monetary policy may have an impact on the Bank of Japan's decision on whether to resume rate hikes at the meeting scheduled for December 18-19.