Technical analyst: 6665 points is the key level for the S&P 500 to stop falling.

date
20:20 07/11/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
US stocks face a "key turning point", as key technical indicators will be put to the test.
Recently, the US stock market has experienced severe fluctuations, with traders studying technical charts to find clues as to where the latest round of selling may stop. Due to doubts in the market about whether investments in artificial intelligence worth billions of dollars will bring returns, along with stock valuations still being too high, the S&P 500 index fell to 6720 points on Thursday, hitting a new low in two weeks. Technical analysts say that the 50-day moving average at 6665 points will be an important support level based on current levels. According to technical analyst Tyler Richey, breaking below this level would signal a "technical crack." He added that, conversely, if the index rises to 6748.10 points (its 21-day moving average), it could reignite market risk appetite. Although investors rarely rely solely on technical patterns, chart analysis can indeed provide useful information about potential market turning points. With official US economic data interrupted during the government shutdown, the peak of earnings season passed, and various uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the importance of chart analysis is increasingly apparent. The S&P 500 index has fallen at least 0.99% for the third time in the past six trading days, currently down 2.5% from its previous high. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) has approached 20. Richey said, "This is a critical turning point." On Thursday, traders rushed to sell stocks. Prior to this, data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. showed that the number of layoffs announced by companies in October hit a record high in over 20 years due to accelerated cost reductions related to artificial intelligence. In addition, concerns about the valuations of tech giants reaching unsustainable levels have exacerbated market uncertainty. The stock price return index of the seven major tech giants fell 2% on Thursday, marking the third decline in the past six trading days. Before the 50-day moving average comes into play, the next key point of interest for technical analysts is the round number of 6700 points. Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, believes that the S&P 500 index has a high open interest in options contracts at that level, which may provide much-needed support for the market in the short term. A high open interest in specific price level options helps keep the market in a specific position, as traders buy a large number of contracts to hedge against the risk of market decline. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase said that the range of 6740 to 6800 points is an important technical level for holding the S&P 500 index, with broader mid-term support at 6640 points. Strategists including Jason Hunter said that breaking below this support level would be a clear bearish signal. Maxwell Grinacoff, head of US stock derivative research at UBS, noted an increase in hedging activities over the past month. He pointed out that since mid-October, the VIX index has been hovering near the key level of 20. On Thursday, the indicator measuring expected price volatility of the Nasdaq 100 index (VXN) climbed to near 25. Amid selling in the US stock market, as earnings season draws to a close and a lack of economic data due to the continued government shutdown, investors are increasingly relying on private data. The next potential catalyst that could affect the market is likely the earnings report released by Nvidia on November 19th. Grinacoff said, "Risks are everywhere, and investors are hedging. I believe investors are very aware of the increasing fragility of the market."