Federal Reserve Governor Milan reiterated that the current interest rates are too high and should be considered for further reduction in the future.
Federal Reserve Governor Milan said on Wednesday that the October employment data in the private sector in the United States was "surprising", but he also emphasized that the current interest rates are still relatively high.
Federal Reserve Board Member Milan stated on Wednesday that the October private sector employment data in the United States was "surprising", but he also emphasized that the current interest rate level is still relatively high, and further reduction should be considered in the future.
According to data released by the ADP Research Institute, the number of new jobs in the October private sector in the United States was 42,000, while the data for the previous month was revised to a decrease of 29,000. The median expectation in the media survey was originally an additional 30,000 people, but the actual data was significantly better than expected.
In an interview, Milan said that while employment data has rebounded, the scale is still limited, wage growth continues to slow, and labor demand has also cooled significantly, not as strong as during cyclical peaks. He believes that these signs indicate that interest rates "may be more appropriate if they are lower than the current level".
Milan has publicly called for further interest rate cuts multiple times recently and voted against the 25 basis point rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and October, advocating for a 50 basis point cut, believing that the current policy measures are insufficient. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points again last week to address the slowdown in the job market, but Chairman Powell said at a press conference that a rate cut in December is "not yet determined" and cautioned the market not to assume further easing is already decided. Meanwhile, several officials warned that a rapid rate cut could lead to a rebound in inflation.
In comparison, Milan's stance is more aggressive, believing that the current policy is "excessively tight", and maintaining high interest rates is "taking unnecessary risks". In his view, the continued cooling of the labor market justifies further policy easing rather than continuing to maintain a stance that prioritizes "anti-inflation".
In the market, Milan's remarks are seen as a signal to increase the probability of further interest rate cuts later this year. Once his views gain more support within the Federal Reserve, interest rate expectations will further adjust, which could push up bond prices, lower yields, and support the trend of interest rate-sensitive assets such as technology stocks. However, excessive easing could also increase the risk of inflation.
Although the employment data has slightly rebounded, overall growth has slowed and wages have cooled, indicating that the US labor market may be transitioning from a "seller's market" to a "buyer's market". If this trend continues, the rationale for maintaining high interest rates will further decrease, providing more arguments for Milan's advocacy.
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