Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fluctuate, AMD falls after earnings release, "mini non-farm payrolls" coming tonight.

Pre-market market trends 1. In pre-market trading on November 5th (Wednesday), the futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow Jones futures were up 0.04%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.24%. 2. As of the time of writing, the DAX index in Germany was down 0.37%, FTSE 100 index in the UK was up 0.04%, CAC 40 index in France was down 0.05%, and Euro Stoxx 50 index was down 0.41%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 0.31% at $60.37 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.20% at $64.31 per barrel. Market news Under the U.S. government shutdown, "small non-farm" becomes a scarce barometer. The latest U.S. private sector employment growth ADP data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday night at 9:15 PM Beijing time. Market expectations are that this ADP data, known as "small non-farm," will show that the number of new jobs added by U.S. private enterprises in October will be 28,000. This is a significant turnaround from the previous month when the ADP report showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, mainly in the service sector. The October non-farm employment report was originally scheduled to be released on Friday of this week, but due to the record length of the federal government shutdown, it is currently unclear when the data will be released. Economists warn that due to the lack of official data, private sector survey data may be overestimated, which could trigger abnormal fluctuations. The U.S. government "shutdown" is on track to break records! On November 4th local time, the U.S. Senate failed to pass a temporary funding bill for the federal government again, with a vote of 54 to 44. This means that the U.S. federal government will continue to be "shutdown," breaking the record for the longest government shutdown from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, lasting 35 days, and becoming the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that escalating operational and political pressures may push lawmakers to reach a compromise, and the shutdown is most likely to end around "the second week of November." Analysts at the bank said that the current shutdown could be the most economically impactful on record. Wall Street warns: Money market tension may continue until November, and the Fed's balance sheet policy is being forced by the market. The money market just ended a volatile month, with the overnight repo rate soaring by 18 basis points last Friday. This was the largest single-day fluctuation outside of the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle since March 2020. Although the SOFR fell slightly on Monday after the pressures at the month-end eased, it is still higher than the Federal Reserve's key policy benchmark rates including the federal funds rate. Other short-term rates in the overnight repo market, where banks borrow from each other, continue to trade above the Fed's managed rates. Wall Street analysts say that the tense situation in the money markets may continue until November due to the high cost of financing, putting pressure on the Fed to take action to add liquidity before the balance sheet reduction next month. Panic drives capital flooding into U.S. Treasuries, strategists bet on a drop in Treasury yields to 3.8%. With concerns about overvaluation in tech stocks causing shocks to global stock indices, the outlook for U.S. Treasuries, known as the world's safest asset, has become a focus of the market. Wall Street executives such as Ted Pick of Morgan Stanley and David Solomon of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warned that the stock market could continue to decline, and strategists are considering whether the $73 trillion bond market has further room to rise. DBS Bank believes that if the stock market continues to decline, the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury could fall from the current approximately 4.07% to 3.8%; while JPMorgan Chase predicts that by the end of 2026, the benchmark yield will drop to 3.50%. Global risk assets plunge, driving gold buying frenzy! Gold stabilizes and rebounds after a steep drop. Gold rebounded after experiencing its largest single-day decline in over a week, as the general risk-off sentiment in financial markets boosted demand for safe-haven assets. As of the time of writing on Wednesday, spot gold was trading at $3965 per ounce. In the previous trading session, the price of spot gold fell by nearly 2% due to the continuous rise in the U.S. dollar index. Due to ongoing concerns about overvaluation, global stock markets continued their sharp decline on Wednesday after experiencing nearly a month of severe losses, with most commodities also declining simultaneously. Stock-specific news AMD (AMD.US) is at its peak of belief, but its performance outlook falls short of the imagination brought by the large order from OpenAI. The financial report shows that AMD's overall revenue in the third quarter increased by 36% year-on-year to $9.25 billion, exceeding the market's expectation of $8.7 billion; Revenue from the data center business increased by 22% year-on-year to $4.3 billion, higher than the market's expectation of about $4.14 billion. Operating profit increased by 75% year-on-year to $1.27 billion; Adjusted earnings per share were $1.20, higher than the market's expectation of $1.17. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $9.3 billion and $9.9 billion, with a non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 54.5%, which is in line with market expectations. However, the market is not particularly satisfied with AMD's latest outlook, feeling somewhat disappointed, especially after Wall Street continuously raised its performance expectations and target stock price following the heavy purchase agreements with OpenAI and Oracle Corporation. The latest outlook from AMD suggests that the revenue effects and returns from its AI GPUs may be slower than what some investors had previously expected. As of the time of writing, AMD was down over 5% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. For the sixth consecutive quarter, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.US) has failed to meet expectations, with another failed performance. The financial report shows that the company had revenue of $5.02 billion in the first quarter, down from $5.94 billion in the same period last year, and below analysts' expectations of $6.09 billion. Super Micro Computer, Inc. adjusted earnings per share were $0.35, lower than analysts' forecast of $0.41, but an increase from $0.07 in the first quarter of the 2025 fiscal year. This performance marks the sixth consecutive quarter in which Super Micro Computer, Inc. has fallen short of analysts' profit and revenue expectations. The company had already lowered investor expectations before announcing its first-quarter results. In late October, the company revised its first-quarter revenue outlook from a range of $6 billion to $7 billion to $5 billion. As of the time of writing, Super Micro Computer, Inc. was down nearly 8% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Pinterest (PINS.US) misses Q4 revenue guidance, with advertising spending slowing and tariff impacts posing risks. The financial report shows that Pinterest's third-quarter sales were $1.05 billion, up 17% year-on-year, in line with market expectations; adjusted earnings per share were $0.38, lower than Wall Street's expectation of $0.42. The company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $1.31 billion and $1.34 billion. The midpoint of its revenue guidance is $1.325 billion, lower than analysts' expectation of $1.34 billion. CFO Julia Donnelly mentioned that in the third quarter, there was a slowdown in advertising spending in the U.S. and Canada, "We believe that current overall trends and market uncertainties will continue, and the new tariff policies in the fourth quarter will also impact the home category." As of the time of writing, Pinterest was down over 18% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Toyota (TM.US) Q2 operating profit falls 27% year-on-year, below expectations, but raises full-year profit and sales guidance. The financial report shows that Toyota's Q2 revenue was 12.38 trillion yen, up 8% year-on-year; operating profit was 839.6 billion yen, down 27% year-on-year, marking the second consecutive quarter of decline year-on-year, and lower than analysts' generally expected 863.1 billion yen. The company expects its operating profit for the 2026 fiscal year to be 34 trillion yen (a 29% decrease year-on-year). Although this forecast is lower than analysts' general expectation of 39 trillion yen, it is higher than the company's initial forecast of 32 trillion yen in the first quarter earnings report, due to cost-cutting efforts and strong sales of hybrid vehicles that are expected to help offset the impact of U.S. import tariffs. As of the time of writing, Toyota Motor Corp. Sponsored ADR was down 2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) reports an 11% year-on-year increase in Q3 sales. The company's third-quarter sales (calculated at a fixed exchange rate) increased by 11% year-on-year to 74.976 billion Danish kroner; operating profit (calculated at a fixed exchange rate) decreased by 21% year-on-year to 23.682 billion Danish kroner; and net profit was 20.006 billion Danish kroner, down 27% year-on-year. The financial report shows that Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B's diabetes and obesity business saw sales of 70.26 billion Danish kroner in the third quarter. Sales of the diabetes drug Semaglutide in the first three quarters reached 169.296 billion Danish kroner ($25.4 billion), surpassing Eli Lilly's Trulicity ($23.3 billion) and Roche's Rybelsus ($24.8 billion). At the same time, the company updated its performance guidance, with sales for 2025 expected to grow by 8%-11%, and operating profit expected to grow by 4%-7% at a fixed exchange rate (CER). As of the time of writing, Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B was up over 2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Q3 revenue and gross profit exceed expectations! Rivian (RIVN.US) achieves excellent results thanks to tax exemptions, easing tariff pressure. With contributions from its joint venture with Volkswagen and its software and services business, the company has achieved positive gross profit for the second quarter of the year. The financial report shows that Rivian's Q3 revenue reached $1.56 billion, up 78% from $874 million in the same period last year, exceeding the average analyst estimate of $1.5 billion. After deducting one-time items such as research and development, the loss per share was $0.65, better than the expected loss per share of $0.72. On the closely watched gross profit indicator, Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in the third quarter, significantly better than the market's expected loss of $38.6 million. As of the time of writing, Rivian was up over 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Strong AI capital expenditure, Arista Networks (ANET.US) Q3 revenue and profit exceed expectations. Arista primarily sells computer network switches for internet data centers, with Microsoft Corporation and Meta being its largest customers. In the quarter ending on September 30th, the network solutions companys total revenue reached $2.31 billion, up 27% year-over-year, surpassing the market's expectation of $2.27 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $0.75, higher than the market consensus of $0.71. Looking ahead, the company expects fourth-quarter revenue to be between $2.3 billion and $2.4 billion, with a midpoint of $2.35 billion slightly above the market's expectation of $2.33 billion; adjusted gross margin is expected to be between 62% and 63%, while the market expectation is 63.2%; adjusted operating margin is expected to be 47%-48%. As of the time of writing, Arista Networks was down over 11% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Astera Labs (ALAB.US) sees a 104% increase in Q3 revenue, with Q4 earnings per share guidance below expectations. The financial report shows that the company had revenue of $230.6 million in Q3, hitting a new high, with a 20% q-o-q increase and a quadruple y-o-y surge, exceeding analysts' estimate of $206.5 million. The doubling of revenue was mainly driven by increasing production volumes for multiple product series on AI platforms. CEO Jitendra Mohan pointed out that the demand for signal conditioning, intelligent cable module, and switching structure products in this quarter was strong and exceeded expectations, especially with the mass production of new AI platforms. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.49, compared to a loss of $0.05 per share in the same period last year. The company expects GAAP earnings per share for the fourth quarter to be $0.20, while the market expectation is $0.25. As of the time of writing, Astera Labs was down over 3% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. Tempus AI (TEM.US) sees an 84.7% year-on-year increase in Q3 revenue, exceeding market expectations, but net loss widens by 5.5%. The company's Q3 revenue reached $334.2 million, a sizable year-on-year increase of 84.7%, surpassing the market's general estimate of $328.73 million. Net loss in the reporting period was $80 million, a 5.5% widening from the $75.8 million net loss in the third quarter of 2024. However, it's worth noting that this quarter's loss includes one-time expenses such as $35 million in stock compensation and employer payroll taxes, increased intangible asset amortization related to the acquisition of Ambry, and a one-time expense of $12 million in debt repayment losses. Non-GAAP net loss per share was $0.11, better than the $0.24 loss per share in the same period last year and exceeding the market's expectation of a $0.17 loss per share. As of the time of writing, Tempus AI was down over 4% in pre-market trading on Wednesday. McDonald's Corporation (MCD.US) sees Q3 same-store sales growth exceeding expectations, but EPS falls short. The financial report shows that McDonald's Corporation had revenue of $7.08 billion in Q3, in line with market expectations; global same-store sales increased by 3.6%, higher than the market expectation of 3.55%. Net profit was $2.28 billion; adjusted earnings per share was $3.22, lower than the market's expectation of $3.33. The company expects an operating profit margin of 40% for the 2025 fiscal year and capital expenditure for the current fiscal year to be between $3 billion and $3.2 billion. Important economic data and events preview 9:15 PM Beijing time: U.S. October ADP employment change 10:00 PM Beijing time: U.S. October ISM non-manufacturing PMI Earnings forecast Thursday morning: Qualcomm (QCOM.US), Arm (ARM.US), Robinhood (HOOD.US), Applovin (APP.US), IonQ (IONQ.US), DoorDash (DASH.US), American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC.US) Thursday pre-market: Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZN.US), Backblaze (BLZE.US), Vistra Energy (VST.US), Autohome Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (ATHM.US), ZAI LAB (ZLAB.US)