Huachuang Securities: Maintains a "buy" rating on JIUMAOJIU (09922) with a target price of HK $2.24.

Huachuang Securities released a research report stating that JIUMAOJIU (09922) core growth DRIVE comes from the accelerated layout of the "5.0 Fresh Mode" of Tai'er, entering the climbing + store expansion period. The bank raised the company's net profit forecast for 2025/2026/2027 to 150/204/242 million yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2/11.2/9.4x. Taking into account the brand strength and product research and development innovation ability of the company, as well as the continuous improvement of same-store sales, the bank gives a 14x PE ratio for 2026 and a target price of 2.24 Hong Kong dollars, maintaining a "recommended" rating. The report stated that in the third quarter, Tai'er's same-store average daily sales fell by 9.3% year-on-year, significantly narrowing from -19.0% in the first half of the year, and had improved for three consecutive quarters. Same-store sales in core cities such as Beijing and Shanghai achieved year-on-year positive growth in the third quarter, reflecting the initial effectiveness of store model optimization and regional strategic adjustments. Although Sang Hotpot and Jiumaojiu brands are still under pressure, the decline has eased compared to the first half of the year, showing overall operational resilience. As of September 30, 2025, the group had a total of 686 restaurants (including franchise stores), with 530 Tai'er stores (21 franchise stores), 71 Sang Hotpot stores, 64 Jiumaojiu stores (1 franchise store), 1 Laimei Store, 1 Shangxianyue Store, and 19 Shandeshanwaimian stores (16 cooperation models). In the third quarter, Tai'er's self-operated table turnover rate was 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions; Sang Hotpot and Jiumaojiu self-operated stores were 2.4 and 2.5 respectively. In terms of per capita consumption, Tai'er self-operated stores were 74 yuan, Sang Hotpot was 100 yuan, and have remained stable for several quarters. The company's strategy has shifted from short-term promotions to strengthening product capabilities and improving customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition. The bank pointed out that the "5.0 Fresh Mode" is accelerating, driven by both the supply chain and digitization. Tai'er's "5.0 Fresh Mode" introduces new dishes core around "live fish, fresh chicken, fresh beef", promoting brand upgrades and customer experience optimization. By the end of September, it had been implemented in 106 stores, with positive market feedback. The company plans to accelerate promotion in the fourth quarter and aims to exceed 200 stores by the end of the year.