JP Morgan: Raises target price for AIA (01299) to HKD 107, accelerating growth momentum expected to drive revaluation.

J.P. Morgan released a research report stating that based on AIA's strong performance in new business value in the third quarter of 2025, the bank is updating its estimates. The target price has been slightly raised from 105 Hong Kong dollars to 107 Hong Kong dollars, and the bank maintains its "overweight" rating on the stock. With the noticeable recovery in demand for life insurance in mainland China - with an average year-on-year growth of 49% in new business value in the first three quarters of 2025 - the bank believes that investors' confidence in the growth prospects and quality of the industry is improving. Additionally, even under strengthened economic assumptions, AIA China achieved a strong year-on-year growth of 27% in new business value in the third quarter of 2025 (with new expansion areas contributing 11% of AIA China's new business value), supporting stronger growth prospects for new business value in 2026 and beyond, particularly considering further geographical expansion plans. J.P. Morgan notes that AIA's current price is equivalent to 1.4 times the forecast embedded value for the 2026 financial year, and its performance this year has outperformed the market (up 43% compared to the Hang Seng Index's 31% increase). Considering the current valuation (1.4 times the forecast embedded value for the 2026 financial year, compared to the historical average of 1.7 times), the bank expects that a consensus upward revision in estimates for new business value growth for the 2025 to 2027 financial years will be a near-term catalyst.