Overnight US stocks | Three major indexes have mixed movements, with the Nasdaq approaching a record high. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) rose 4%.

On Monday, the three major indices fluctuated, with AI trading continuing to be hot. The Nasdaq is expected to approach the closing record high set last Wednesday. Meta continued its downward trend after the financial report, and Bitcoin plummeted. [US Stocks] As of the close, the Dow fell 226.19 points, or 0.48%, to 47,336.68 points; the Nasdaq rose 109.77 points, or 0.46%, to 23,834.72 points; the S&P 500 rose 11.77 points, or 0.17%, to 6,851.97 points. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) rose 4%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 2.59%, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose 2.17%, and Meta Platforms (META.US) fell 1.64%. [European Stocks] The Germany DAX30 index rose 178.39 points, or 0.74%, to 24,132.84 points; the UK FTSE 100 index fell 19.70 points, or 0.20%, to 9,697.55 points; the France CAC40 index fell 12.86 points, or 0.16%, to 8,108.21 points; the Europe Stoxx50 index rose 15.91 points, or 0.28%, to 5,677.95 points; the Spain IBEX35 index rose 2.55 points, or 0.02%, to 16,036.25 points; the Italy FTSE MIB index rose 27.68 points, or 0.06%, to 43,203.00 points. [Crude Oil] Crude oil prices were relatively stable on Monday as traders weighed the expectation of an oversupply in the market. OPEC+ is preparing to halt production increases in the next quarter due to the expected slowdown in demand. WTI crude oil futures for December delivery rose 0.11% to settle at $61.05 per barrel; Brent crude oil for January delivery fell 0.19% to close at $64.89 per barrel. [Cryptocurrency] According to Coinglass data, on Monday, over $1.2 billion worth of positions in the cryptocurrency market were liquidated in 24 hours. Of this, over $1.1 billion liquidated were long positions, while only $115.5 million were short positions. Before the large liquidation event, Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced flash crashes, dropping from $108,000 to $105,000 and $3,700 to $3,500 respectively within an hour. The total liquidation amount for these two assets exceeded $100 million in the same hour. American investors may have been at the forefront of this downturn, as the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index hovered around -$30 during the crash. Over the entire weekend, the index was mostly negative and even reached -$80 at one point on Friday. [US Dollar Index] Despite weaker-than-expected US manufacturing data, the Bloomberg US Dollar Index edged higher after comments from Fed officials on the monetary policy outlook. The Bloomberg US Dollar Index rose by less than 0.1%, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. [Precious Metals] Spot gold remained relatively stable, closing at $4,002.62. [Macro News] The US Treasury estimates borrowing of $569 billion for the fourth quarter, a decrease of $21 billion from July's estimate. The US Treasury released its financing estimate for the fourth quarter, projecting borrowing of $569 billion, a decrease of $21 billion from the July estimate. This decrease is mainly due to higher cash balances at the beginning of the quarter offsetting the expected lower net cash flows. Excluding the higher-than-expected cash balances at the start of the quarter, borrowing estimates for the quarter are $20 billion higher than the data released in July. Assuming cash balances at the end of March reach $850 billion, the Treasury expects to raise $578 billion in private net debt in the quarter from January to March 2026. US manufacturing shrinks for eight consecutive months due to weak demand. Institution reviews the US ISM Manufacturing PMI report: US manufacturing activity shrank for the eighth consecutive month in October, weighed down by declining output and weak demand. The data showed that the US ISM Manufacturing Index fell 0.4 points to 48.7, while the production index dropped 2.8 points to 48.2, the second time in the past three months that production has shrank. This also dragged down employment, as the ISM employment index shrank for the ninth consecutive month. At the same time, inflation pressures continue to ease. The purchasing price index fell by 3.9 points to 58, the lowest level since the beginning of the year. In October, 12 industries in manufacturing experienced contraction, with the weakest performance in the textile, clothing, and furniture industries. Six industries, including basic metals and transportation equipment, showed growth. The survey showed that US manufacturers are generally pessimistic, still dealing with uncertainties in trade policy. Supplier delivery-index rose to a four-month high, indicating longer delivery times. Order volume declined for the second consecutive month, but the decline was slower. Manufacturers saw a significant drop in inventories, the largest in a year. Customer inventories remained low, indicating the potential for a rebound in orders. Fed Governor Powell leaves room for a rate cut in December. Fed Governor Powell stated on Monday that there is a possibility of a rate cut at the December Fed meeting, but the decision at that time will be based on information from a wide range of sources between now and then, especially given the delay in official data releases due to the federal government shutdown. Powell stated, "Both risks of the dual mandate are rising. Maintaining rates too high could increase the risk of rapid deterioration in the labor market; while a significant rate cut may lead to unanchored inflation expectations." "Expressing economic outlook at this time is challenging," she said, mentioning that since the government shutdown on October 1, the latest official data on employment, inflation, and economic growth have been missing. However, she emphasized, "We are not acting blindly." Decision-makers and staff are actively compiling various available administrative data, private sector data, and the results of multiple surveys conducted by the Fed on businesses and households. This data so far confirms her assessment: inflation is expected to remain slightly above target and faces upside risks, while the labor market overall remains robust but is cooling down and might experience a sharper decline than expected. Fed's Daley: 50 basis points rate cut this year positions Fed more favorably, remains open to December rate decision. Fed's Daley stated that supporting a rate cut was appropriate. A 50 basis point rate cut this year positions the Fed more favorably and remains open to the December rate decision. Inflation remains elevated and needs to be brought down. The labor market has clearly slowed down. It is necessary to continue to put pressure on inflation without compromising employment. Decisions need to strike a balance of risks. Government data is not the only data we have. The Fed is not more divided than before, I wouldn't even use the word "divided." Looking forward, communication is needed with people. We have less information than before, but we can still make decisions as needed. The labor market does not seem to be on the edge of a cliff. Citi: Global AI industry revenue expected to reach $975 billion by 2030. Citigroup predicts that global AI industry revenue will reach $975 billion by 2030, compared to $430 billion in 2025, indicating a compound annual growth rate of up to 86%. This growth reflects the acceleration of enterprise adoption and commercialization of AI technology, while mega-cloud service providers are increasing their investments in infrastructure to meet the surging market demand. Last week, four U.S. tech giants, Alphabet Inc. Class C parent company Alphabet, Meta parent company Facebook, Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon.com, Inc., announced plans to significantly increase their annual capital expenditures to support the rapid growth of artificial intelligence. Citigroup estimates that the total capital expenditure of major cloud computing companies in the U.S. between 2026 and 2030 will reach $4.4 trillion, while the total global investment, including sovereign funds and other institutions, is projected to reach $7.75 trillion. US cardboard sales hit a 10-year low, worsening concerns over weak holiday retail sales during the peak season. According to data from the Fibre Box Association, the local cardboard shipments in the United States fell to the lowest level since 2015 in the third quarter, continuing the downward trend from the previous quarter. This has raised concerns about the possibility of disappointing holiday sales for U.S. retailers this year. In recent weeks, several packaging companies have warned that economic uncertainty is restraining spending by retailers and consumers. Cardboard boxes are mainly used for transporting goods and displaying them in stores and are often seen as a leading indicator of food and consumer goods demand. The peak season for cardboard shipments is crucial every year, reaching a peak in October to prepare for the holiday season. [Stock News] Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) signs a $38 billion agreement with OpenAI to provide NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) chip computing support. OpenAI has agreed to pay Amazon.com, Inc. $38 billion in computing service fees over a 7-year agreement, marking the first collaboration between this AI startup and the cloud computing giant. Amazon.com, Inc. expects that all computing capacity will be available to OpenAI by the end of next year, allowing OpenAI to quickly access NVIDIA Corporation high-performance chips deployed in Amazon.com, Inc. data centers. Compared to the contracts OpenAI previously signed with other cloud giants, the scale of this deal is relatively small, but this collaboration is strategically important for Amazon.com, Inc. as a crucial first step to benefit from this "AI computing power battle." To date, OpenAI has signed nearly $600 billion in new cloud service agreements with Oracle, Microsoft Corporation, and Amazon.com, Inc. Earlier this year, OpenAI also reached a cloud collaboration agreement with Alphabet Inc. Class C, but the specific amount was not disclosed. OpenAI's estimated revenue this year is $13 billion. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US) reaches a multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure agreement with Lambda. Superintelligence cloud Lambda announced today that it has reached a multi-billion-dollar agreement with Microsoft Corporation to deploy AI infrastructure supported by tens of thousands of NVIDIA Corporation GPUs, including the NVIDIA Corporation GB300 NVL72 system. This strategic cooperation represents a significant multi-year deployment of NVIDIA Corporation's AI infrastructure, expanding access to critical cloud acceleration computing resources. Lambda CEO Stephen Balaban said, "We are pleased to see the Microsoft Corporation and Lambda teams partner to deploy these massive AI supercomputers. Our cooperation with Microsoft Corporation has surpassed eight years, and this is the extraordinary next step in our collaborative relationship." The agreement with Microsoft Corporation highlights the significant increase in global demand for high-performance computing driven by the surge in AI assistant usage and increased enterprise adoption rates. We believe that Lambda's commitment to deploying gigawatt-level AI factories is driving one of the most significant technological revolutions in human history. This collaboration underscores Lambda's position as a trusted large-scale partner, deploying computing infrastructure for leading AI products worldwide. [Major Ratings] Loop Capital: NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) still has upward potential, target price raised to $350.