The shipment volume of cardboard boxes in the United States has fallen to a ten-year low, exacerbating concerns about weak retail sales during the peak season.

The sales of corrugated boxes in the United States continue to weaken, reinforcing concerns in the market about the possibility of a disappointing holiday shopping season this year. According to data released last Friday by the Fibre Box Association, corrugated box shipments in the United States in the third quarter fell to the lowest level since the same period in 2015, continuing the weak trend that began in the second quarter. Several companies, including leading packaging materials companies, have recently issued warnings, stating that economic uncertainty is putting pressure on retailers and consumer spending. Corrugated boxes are important packaging materials for food, daily necessities, and e-commerce transportation, and have traditionally been seen as a leading indicator of retail demand. Especially in October each year, corrugated box orders usually see a peak before the holidays for retailer stocking and holiday displays, but this year the situation is noticeably sluggish. Media surveys show that most corrugated box factories reported that October orders were "flat or below normal levels." At the same time, the U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low, and manufacturing activity has been shrinking for eight consecutive months. President Thomas Hassfurther of Packaging Corporation of America (PKG.US) stated last month, "Clearly, we haven't gained much momentum from the overall economy. The ongoing tariffs and other uncertainties throughout the year are affecting our business." Corrugated packaging giant Smurfit Westrock (SW.UW) announced last week that its corrugated box volumes in North America in the third quarter were down 8.7% year-on-year, leading to a more than 12% drop in stock price, hitting its lowest closing price since going public in July 2024. International Paper Company (IP.US) even lowered its net sales expectations for this year and 2027 in its financial report, causing a nearly 13% drop in stock price in a single day. CEO Andy Silvernail stated that the corrugated box industry in the United States is expected to see a decline of 1% to 1.5% in shipments this year compared to 2024, due to factors such as trade uncertainties, weak consumer confidence, and a sluggish real estate market. He acknowledged that this trend has clearly reversed the market's expectations for "slight growth throughout the year" at the beginning of the year, saying, "Unless we expect major rebounds in the U.S. and European markets, we must adjust our goals. We choose to face reality rather than continue to comfort ourselves, and focus on the parts we can control." Industry insiders widely believe that the soft demand for corrugated boxes in the United States not only reflects the lackluster manufacturing and retail restocking activities, but also suggests that this year's holiday consumption peak season may be lower than in previous years, with e-commerce, department stores, and durable goods companies facing higher operational uncertainties.