Trump tariffs to raise holiday costs by an estimated $40.6 billion, LendingTree says

LendingTree warns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will shave billions from American household budgets this holiday season, estimating a $40.6 billion increase in combined costs for consumers and retailers. Sunday marked six months since the introduction of the administration’s broad “liberation day” tariffs, and the firm’s analysis — anchored to 2024 winter-holiday spending patterns — finds price effects are now filtering through inventories and onto store shelves.

LendingTree calculates that households will bear the lion’s share of the burden, shouldering roughly $28.6 billion of the added expense, which works out to about $132 extra per shopper. Retailers are expected to absorb the remainder, approximately $12 billion in heightened costs. Matt Schulz, LendingTree’s chief consumer finance analyst, said that while an additional $132 per household may not upend financial plans for all families, it is meaningful for many and could prompt cutbacks in gift purchasing or force some consumers to take on extra debt.

Industry observers told CNBC that retailers are bracing for softer demand this season as higher costs squeeze discretionary spending, a view Schulz echoed when he noted the “unfortunate reality” that many shoppers will face trade-offs. LendingTree’s sector breakdown shows that buyers of electronics will see the largest incremental hit, averaging an extra $186 per shopper, followed by clothing and accessories at an added $82 per shopper. Purchases of personal care items, beauty products and toys are projected to rise by about $14 per buyer, while food and candy purchases are estimated to climb roughly $12 per shopper as a result of the tariff measures.