China Galaxy Securities: The production time schedule for solid-state batteries is gradually becoming clearer. Incremental equipment will bring new market opportunities.

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the time schedule for the mass production of solid-state batteries by domestic and international battery and vehicle manufacturers is gradually becoming clearer. It is expected that small-scale installation of full solid-state batteries will begin in 2027, with mass production starting in 2030. The technical and industrial chain advantages of traditional lithium battery equipment manufacturers are expected to continue to solid-state batteries. At the same time, incremental equipment such as dry electrode and isostatic pressing will bring new market opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of solid-state battery equipment research and development, customers, and orders of traditional lithium battery equipment manufacturers and dry electrode equipment suppliers. Some key points from China Galaxy Securities are as follows: The prospects for solid-state batteries are broad, and industrialization trends are accelerating. Solid-state batteries use a solid electrolyte instead of traditional liquid electrolytes and separators. Compared to traditional liquid batteries, solid-state batteries have significant advantages such as high energy density, high safety, and wide application scenarios. They are expected to address industry pain points such as thermal runaway and range anxiety. Currently, semi-solid-state batteries mainly use oxide materials, while sulfides are gradually becoming the mainstream technology route for solid-state electrolytes due to their excellent ionic conductivity and good mechanical properties. With policy guidance and demand from emerging markets such as low-altitude economy and humanoid robots like Siasun Robot & Automation, the pace of industrialization of solid-state batteries is accelerating. Semi-solid-state batteries are already being installed, and the market for full solid-state batteries holds promise. The schedule for the mass production of solid-state batteries by domestic and international battery and vehicle manufacturers is gradually becoming clearer, and it is expected that full solid-state batteries will start small-scale installation in 2027 and enter mass production in 2030. Innovations in the entire solid-state battery process system, focusing on core incremental links. Semi-solid-state batteries have production processes similar to traditional liquid batteries, with a higher reuse rate of existing production lines. On the other hand, full solid-state batteries have undergone significant changes in production processes, especially with distinct differences in the front-end and mid-stream processes. The dry electrode process in the front-end is more suitable for material characteristics and can save energy and costs, gradually replacing wet coating; the mid-stream process involves gel frame printing + stacking + isostatic pressing instead of traditional winding + injection; and the rear process will involve high-pressure composition. New equipment such as dry electrode, solid-state electrolyte transfer printing, gel frame printing, isostatic pressing, etc., will be added to the equipment side, and processes like dry mixing, rolling, stacking, and composition capacity will also require iterative upgrades to existing equipment. Changes in production processes will lead to the restructuring of equipment demand and value volume. The investment amount per GWh of full solid-state battery equipment will be significantly higher than that of traditional liquid batteries, with the largest changes in value volume expected in the front-end and mid-stream equipment. By 2030, the global and Chinese markets for full solid-state battery equipment are expected to reach 32.059 billion yuan and 25.136 billion yuan, respectively. Solid-state batteries are expected to be first applied in emerging industries such as Siasun Robot & Automation and eVTOL, which have high requirements for range and safety and are relatively insensitive to price. They will then expand to mid-to-high-end new energy vehicle models. As technology processes mature and economies of scale become evident, they will eventually be applied in the highly cost-sensitive energy storage industry. Assuming that by 2030, the penetration rates of full solid-state batteries in global power batteries, energy storage batteries, humanoid robots like Siasun Robot & Automation, and eVTOL batteries will be 2.5%, 1.5%, 3.5%, and 3.5% respectively; and in China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power batteries, energy storage batteries, humanoid robots like Siasun Robot & Automation, and eVTOL batteries will be 3.5%, 2.5%, 5%, and 5% respectively. In the initial stage of industrialization, the investment cost of full solid-state battery equipment will be high, but as technology continues to iterate and equipment costs decrease, the investment amount per GWh is expected to gradually decrease from 4-5 billion currently to 2-3 billion by 2030. Risk factors include macroeconomic risks below expectations; risks of slower-than-expected progress in the industrialization of solid-state batteries; risks of slower-than-expected progress in technological research and development; risks of slower-than-expected development in downstream emerging sectors; risks of significant increases in raw material prices; and risks of tariffs and export trade disputes.