Highlights of the brokerage morning meeting | The style of the A-share market in 2026 is entering a re-balancing phase rather than a switch.
At today's securities morning meeting, Zhongtai Securities believes that policy and technology are driving the photovoltaic industry towards high-quality development; Huatai Securities stated that the stock market style in the year 2026 will undergo rebalancing rather than switching.
Last Friday, the market experienced a volatile adjustment with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 103.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, pharmaceuticals, movie theaters, and AI applications performed well, while insurance, storage chips, and CPO sectors saw declines. In October as a whole, the Shanghai Composite Index accumulated a 1.85% increase, reaching 4000 points at one point, setting a new ten-year high. The ChiNext Index accumulated a 1.56% decrease, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board Index experienced a volatile adjustment with a cumulative decrease of more than 5%. The BSE 50 Index showed a strong performance, with a monthly increase of more than 3.5%.
During today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. expressed optimism about the continued resonance of the global energy storage trend. Zhongtai believes that with policy and technology driving forces, the photovoltaic industry is moving towards high-quality development. Huatai stated that the A-share market style in 2026 will undergo rebalancing rather than switching.
China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Optimistic about the continued resonance of the global energy storage trend
China Securities Co.,Ltd. stated that the market has shown recovery and is optimistic about the continued resonance of the global energy storage trend. The domestic energy storage industry has reached an economic turning point, with extremely high investment, mainly driven by the marketization of new energy and capacity electricity prices. China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that the penetration rate of energy storage is still less than 10%, and it estimates that new domestic installed capacity will increase to 300GWh next year. The biggest opportunity overseas comes from the energy storage demand brought by data centers, with leading companies already having many orders. Energy storage will drive lithium battery demand to grow by over 30% next year, providing investment opportunities in materials, batteries, and integration.
Zhongtai: Policy and technology dual drive, photovoltaic industry moving towards high-quality development
Zhongtai believes that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will make green transformation a core goal, explicitly emphasizing the consolidation and expansion of the advantages of the wind power and photovoltaic industries. Since the end of June 2025, the central government has intensified the issuance of "anti-internal rotation" policies, with six departments jointly convening a symposium on the photovoltaic industry to deploy standardizing competition orders and promote the industry's transition from low-priced disorderly competition to healthy and sustainable development, optimizing on both supply and demand sides, bringing substantive benefits to the industry. On the technological front, the photovoltaic industry is undergoing profound changes. By 2025, China will officially bid farewell to the P-type era, with the market share of N-type monocrystalline silicon technology expected to exceed 96.9%. The TOPCon, HJT, and BC three major technology routes are advancing in parallel, continually promoting battery efficiency improvement and electricity cost reduction. China's photovoltaic installed capacity has achieved a leap-forward growth. In 2024, the national new installed capacity increased by approximately 45% year-on-year, nearly 20 times the growth compared to 2015, marking photovoltaics' transition from supplementary energy to incremental main force. After experiencing adjustments, the industry fundamentals are showing a turning point and an upward trend. The "anti-internal rotation" policy is expected to promote competition optimization and help profit restoration.
Huatai: Market style in 2026 A-share enters rebalancing rather than switching
Huatai looks ahead to the A-share market in 2026 and provides four key judgments. Firstly, the profit cycle may rebound elastically. Thanks to the approaching turning points of the capacity cycle and inventory cycle, the profit cycle is expected to enter a recovery channel in the first half of next year, with the expectations of repair elasticity lying in the real estate cycle and business going overseas, with positive signals currently present in both. Secondly, there is still room for relative valuation to rise. The current forward PE TTM of the CSI 800 still has room to increase from historical highs compared to developed markets and other emerging markets. Chinese assets still have relative attractiveness, and incremental funding does not constrain the market. Thirdly, next year the market style will enter rebalancing rather than switching. Fourthly, the focus will be on policy cycles, technology cycles, real estate cycles, capacity cycles, inventory cycles, energy cycles, and capital market reform as seven major investment clues.
This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe", GMTEight Editor: Jiang Yuanhua.
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