Zhongtai: Policy and technology driving the dual wheels of the photovoltaic industry towards high-quality development.

date
07:25 03/11/2025
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GMT Eight
CITIC Securities believes that the fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry are showing a turning point towards improvement after undergoing adjustments. The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote the optimization of the competitive landscape and help restore profitability.
Zhongtai releases research report stating that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will make green transformation a core goal, explicitly proposing to consolidate and expand the advantages of the wind power and photovoltaic industries. At the technological level, China has established an absolute leading position in the global photovoltaic field. By 2024, China's global production capacity and output in key areas such as polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules will account for over 80%, becoming the core driver of global technological iteration and cost control. The report believes that the fundamentals of the photovoltaic industry are showing a turning point towards an upward trend after adjustments, with policies promoting competition optimization and helping to repair profitability. Key points from Zhongtai are as follows: Dual policy and technology drive, photovoltaic industry moving towards high-quality development Policy-driven, the "14th Five-Year Plan" leads the development of the photovoltaic industry, optimizing both supply and demand with "anti-internal competition" measures. The "14th Five-Year Plan" makes green transformation a core goal, explicitly proposing to consolidate and expand the advantages of the wind power and photovoltaic industries. Since the end of June 2025, there has been a series of national-level policies aimed at combating internal competition, with six departments holding discussions on the photovoltaic industry, deploying to regulate the competitive order and promote the industry's transition from low-priced disordered competition to healthy and sustainable development, bringing substantial benefits to both supply and demand sides. Technological change, the photovoltaic industry breakthrough grows vigorously. At the technological level, the photovoltaic industry is undergoing a profound transformation. By 2025, China will officially bid farewell to the P-type era, with the market share of N-type monocrystalline silicon technology expected to exceed 96.9%. TOPCon, HJT, and BC are three major technology routes that are driving continuous improvements in battery efficiency and decreasing costs. China has established an absolute leading position in the global photovoltaic field, with its global production capacity and output in key areas such as polycrystalline silicon, silicon wafers, solar cells, and modules exceeding 80% by 2024, becoming the core driver of global technological iteration and cost control. Industry leaps forward, the fundamental situation of China's photovoltaic industry shows a turning point upwards. China's photovoltaic installed capacity has achieved a breakthrough growth. By 2024, the national added installed capacity is expected to increase by about 45% year-on-year, nearly 20 times higher than in 2015, indicating that photovoltaics have transitioned from supplemental energy to an incremental powerhouse. The industry fundamentals are showing a turning point towards an upward trend after adjustments, and policies aimed at combating internal competition are expected to promote competition optimization, helping to repair profitability.