State-level initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell, highlighting the resilience of the US labor market in the face of headwinds.

Based on the unadjusted state-level data on unemployment insurance claims released during the federal government shutdown in the United States, the latest analysis from private statistical agencies shows that the number of initial unemployment benefit claims in the US unexpectedly decreased last week, indicating that the US labor market, though significantly cooled compared to the hot period, remains resilient and has not yet entered into a prolonged period of negative growth. Private agencies adjusted the state-level data compiled by state governments and estimated that as of the week ending October 25, the number of initial claims dropped significantly from the revised 231,000 people the previous week to approximately 218,000 people. Due to the ongoing federal government shutdown in the US, the Department of Labor has not released the weekly benchmark national unemployment insurance claims report since September 25, but has provided downloadable detailed statistics for most states. Private statistical agencies have adjusted these original state government unemployment insurance claims data using seasonal factors pre-published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. When all state data is included, this method is very close to the official seasonally adjusted data. However, the latest weekly data for Massachusetts, Arizona, the District of Columbia, and the US Virgin Islands are still unavailable. For these areas, private agencies generally substitute the average of the previous four weeks. Regarding the number of continued unemployment benefit claims currently being focused on by the market, which can serve as an alternative measure of the number of people continuously receiving unemployment benefits, private statistics show that as of the week ending October 18, this number may have slightly increased from 1.94 million people to 1.95 million people. Private statistical agencies generally state that the number of unemployment benefit claims among federal employees in the US has recently decreased, but remains at extremely high levels. According to some data published on the Department of Labor's website, as of the week ending October 25, there were 8,865 new initial claims under the Federal Employee Unemployment Compensation (UCFE) program nationwide. The statistics for the aforementioned four areas are similarly missing. Therefore, private agencies estimate that the number of continued unemployment benefit claims among federal employees in the US may have increased significantly to 20,594 people as of the week ending October 18, reaching the highest level since the last end of the federal government shutdown. It is worth noting that whether the data comes from ADP or Revelio employment statistics, it shows that US business recruitment activity has significantly slowed down compared to the hot job market period, but still shows a resilient slight growth trend. Both these statistical agencies and Wall Street giants like Goldman Sachs still expect the US economy to achieve a "Goldilocks-style soft landing". Recently released consumer spending on the rise, in line with the expected curve of PCE, combined with GDP data revisions, as well as recent initial unemployment claims data showing that the labor market has not deteriorated significantly further, combined with market betting that the intensity of the Fed's rate cut will be stronger than at the end of 2024, has indeed increased the subjective probability of a "Goldilocks" macroeconomic scenario: that is, with growth not weak, inflation not too hot, and market expectations leaning towards a lower interest rate trajectory. The so-called "Goldilocks" style US macroeconomic environment refers to an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold, but just right, maintaining a moderate GDP and consumer spending increase, along with stable mild inflation trends, while benchmark interest rates are on a downward trajectory.