UBS: Lower target price for BUD APAC (01876) to HK$8.75, maintain "buy" rating.
The bank lowered its profit forecast for Budweiser APAC from 2025 to 2027 by 7% to 9% to reflect the continued weakness in the Chinese market and limited visibility in the fourth quarter, with expectations for recovery to be delayed until 2026.
UBS released a research report stating that BUD APAC (01876) is expected to have third quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $1.55 billion and $438 million, respectively, in 2025, a decrease of 8.8% and 8.6% year-on-year, slightly below the bank's expectations of 1-3%, roughly in line with market expectations. The bank lowered its profit forecast for BUD APAC from 2025 to 2027 by 7-9% to reflect the continued weakness in the Chinese market and limited visibility in the fourth quarter, and expects the recovery to be delayed until 2026. Based on the process of high-endization in the household channel, attractive valuation, and robust cash reserves to support stable dividends in 2025, the bank maintains a "buy" rating with a target price lowered from HK$9.07 to HK$8.75.
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