UBS: Raises PETROCHINA (00857) target price to 10.3 Hong Kong dollars, third-quarter performance exceeds expectations.

UBS released a research report stating that PETROCHINA (00857) saw a 5% year-on-year decrease in net profit for the first nine months of 2025, to 126.3 billion RMB; in the third quarter, it recorded 42.3 billion RMB, a 4% year-on-year decrease, but a 14% increase quarter-on-quarter, outperforming the bank's expectations. UBS raised its target price for PetroChina from 9.3 HKD to 10.3 HKD. Given the better-than-expected performance in the third quarter of 2025, UBS slightly raised its forecast for PetroChina's 2025 profits by 2%, with a "buy" rating. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025, UBS expects the average Brent crude oil price to be $63 per barrel; with domestic natural gas demand entering the peak season, they predict that both natural gas prices and sales volume can increase. UBS also believes that the refining and chemical fundamentals may face some pressures and advises to pay attention to any asset impairment at the end of the year. In the long term, UBS expects oil prices for PetroChina to gradually stabilize and rebound in 2026 to 2028, with prices reaching $64, $70, and $75 per barrel respectively; domestic natural gas prices may be more stable compared to overseas prices due to the continued growth in domestic demand for natural gas; downstream refining and chemical sectors of PetroChina can benefit from policies targeting reversing the trend of "inner circulation."