Focus Consultation: Weak supply and demand in the polycrystalline silicon market, price trends focus on policy implementation.

TrendForce's report states that the polysilicon market in November will face a "double weak" situation of reduced supply and decreased end demand. Despite the potential support from anti-inner loop policies to stabilize the weak silicon price, major polysilicon manufacturers have shown a slight willingness to lower prices. From a supply-demand perspective, there is insufficient driving force for polysilicon price increases, and it is necessary to closely monitor whether the procurement policy will boost prices. The overall industry inventory currently remains above 420,000 tons, and polysilicon plant inventory is expected to continue to rise, mainly due to high downstream crystal pulling end inventories and a strong wait-and-see attitude, resulting in only on-demand purchasing. In terms of production changes in the industry, Red Lion Haidong one-line production is running at full capacity; Tongwei Baotou sub-line is under maintenance, Tongwei Yunnan Baoshan is gradually reducing production rates, Leshan base is preparing to decrease production rates; XinTe Zhun Dong's production capacity continues to climb, Nanshan Blue Glass has a small output in Qinghai, Jinnuo is operating steadily, Dongfang Hope Ningxia's new project is maintaining individual reactor trial production, and polysilicon plants continue to undergo maintenance while Li Hao in Qinghai is ramping up production capacity. Silicon Wafer Currently, silicon wafer inventory remains above 20GW, with an expectation of falling prices in the market. Battery manufacturers are slowing down their delivery speeds, and specialized silicon wafer plants continue to accumulate inventory. In terms of size structure, the pressure on 210RN inventory continues, while the supply and demand for 183N and 210N remain relatively balanced. Overall silicon wafer transaction prices have slightly decreased this week, with top companies showing a willingness to hold prices, but second and third-tier companies are receiving more low-priced orders. Looking ahead to November, the weakening demand for downstream batteries and components, coupled with the difficulty in reducing the operating rate of integrated crystal pulling plants, will result in a significant increase in external pressure on specialized silicon wafer plants, creating overall supply pressure. While the price of silicon wafers may face downward risks, the strong silicon material prices provide cost support, and with the added impact of anti-inner loop policies, the downward space is expected to be limited. Furthermore, there is a general expectation in the market that silicon wafer plants may stabilize prices through production reduction plans next month. Solar Cells Currently, battery inventory remains at around 5-7 days, with a continued differentiation in structure. The inventory is mainly dominated by 210RN, with an upward trend due to decreased demand for 183N sizes in India, while demand for 210N remains relatively strong, resulting in low inventory pressure. In November, terminal demand is gradually weakening, putting pressure on battery manufacturers to lower prices under the influence of component pressures. There is a continued downward risk for overall prices. In terms of size breakdown, as northern centralized projects gradually complete, the price advantage of 210N is expected to disappear gradually, increasing the risk of downward prices. The price of 183N may continue to decline due to reduced overseas demand, while supply and demand for 210RN are relatively balanced, with estimated prices stabilizing. Photovoltaic Modules As the trend of the winter season gradually appears, both domestic and international installation demand is decreasing. In the short term, demand is mainly supported by domestic centralized projects, with strong demand for 210 models expected to continue until mid-November. Module plant inventory is extremely low, giving them a pricing advantage. However, as northern centralized projects are completed, module manufacturers will face continued pressure to reduce production and lower prices under terminal pressure. The 210 model modules face rapid decline in demand and price pressure, while conventional module prices remain concentrated at around 0.65-0.68 RMB, with difficulties in shipments. Overall, the trend of weakening terminal demand for modules is clear, with insufficient backup orders for module manufacturers, resulting in overall price pressure along the industry chain.