Dongxing: Food and beverage consumption is expected to increase along with the overall consumption growth, which will provide incremental opportunities. It is suggested to focus on valuation repair and industry growth opportunities.
Dongxing Securities recommends paying attention to the valuation repair and industrial growth opportunities brought about by changes in food and beverage consumption under the transformation of economic momentum.
Dongxing releases research report stating that the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposes to create new demand, promote the interaction of consumption and investment, supply and demand, strengthen the domestic circulation of internal driving forces and reliability, etc. The bank expects that food and beverage consumption will have incremental opportunities during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period as overall consumption recovers. Enterprises that can seize new channels and consumer trends will become industry leaders. It is recommended to pay attention to the valuation repair and industrial growth opportunities brought about by changes in food and beverage consumption under the economic momentum transformation.
Key points of Dongxing's views are as follows:
Demand-side management is raised to a strategic height
The "Recommendations" clearly state that "adhere to the strategical foundation of expanding domestic demand, adhere to the close combination of benefiting the people, promoting consumption, investing in goods, and investing in people, leading new supply with new demand, creating new demand with new supply, promoting the healthy interaction between consumption and investment, supply and demand, and enhancing the domestic circulation of internal driving forces and reliability." This time, the "Recommendations" raise expanding domestic demand to a strategic foundation to carry out overall planning and deployment. At the same time, for the first time, the relationship between supply and demand stated that "new demand leads new supply, and new supply creates new demand." This statement marks a fundamental adjustment in the logic of national economic growth, an upgrade of the domestic demand strategy, and a repositioning of the supply-demand relationship, which will promote the industry's transformation from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, and from homogeneous competition to differentiated development.
Policy direction for boosting consumption is clearly identified
The "Recommendations" clearly point out and deploy the direction of boosting consumption. The "Recommendations" state that "implementation of special actions to boost consumption should be deepened. Coordinate employment promotion, income increase, stabilizing expectations, reasonably increasing the proportion of public service expenditure in fiscal expenditure, and enhancing residents' consumption capacity. Expand the supply of high-quality consumer goods and services. Increase the effort of universal policies that reach consumers directly. Increase government funds for livelihood guarantees. Improve the system and mechanism to promote consumption, eliminate unreasonable restrictive measures on consumption such as cars and housing, establish and improve management methods adapted to new consumption formats, models, new scenarios, and implement paid staggered vacations," etc. In terms of specific policy directions to boost consumption, the bank believes that the "Recommendations" starting from the fundamentals of stabilizing consumption expectations and increasing consumption capacity will have a positive impact on future consumption. It is expected that there will be more clear and comprehensive policies in the direction of livelihood security in the future, such as the elderly care and medical care.
Food and beverage consumption is expected to gain incremental opportunities with the expansion of total consumption
Under the guidance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" proposal, the impact of demand on economic development as a whole has been enhanced, and food and beverage consumption are expected to gain incremental opportunities with the expansion of the total economy. At the same time, the bank sees many new opportunities and highlights in the current food and beverage industry, such as the vigorous development of new channel models such as instant retail, snack volume sales, membership supermarkets, etc. These new channels, with their efficient supply chain management, accurate demand matching, and optimized consumer experiences, are reshaping the sales pattern of the food and beverage industry and bringing new investment opportunities.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations, demand recovery falls short of expectations, policy easing is less than expected, and company management falls short of expectations, etc.
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