Powell: Another rate cut in December is not a sure thing, there is a big division within the committee, the job market is still cooling down, and there is short-term upward pressure on inflation.

Powell October Press Conference Summary: 1. Outlook on Policy Rates: The Federal Reserve cutting rates again in December is not a certainty. There is currently a wide range of opinions among FOMC members. Some believe it's time to pause. 2. Balance Sheet: No decision was made today on the composition of the balance sheet. The composition of the balance sheet is a long-term process that will be gradual. The adjustment of the balance sheet towards holding shorter duration assets is hoped for. 3. Job Market: Due to restrictive policy, the job market is still cooling down. There has not been an exacerbation of the weakness in the job market. Job vacancies in recent weeks indicate stability. Dramatic decreases in labor supply are affecting the job market. The Fed closely monitors layoff decisions. 4. Inflation: The September CPI was milder than expected. Service inflation, excluding the housing market, has been unilaterally trending. Core PCE, excluding tariffs, may be at 2.3% or 2.4%. So far, non-tariff inflation has not strayed far from the 2% inflation target. The basic forecast is that the US will still see some additional tariff-related inflation. 5. Government Shutdown: Data disclosed by private industry cannot replace government statistics from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). It can be envisioned that a government shutdown by the Trump administration will affect the December FOMC monetary policy meeting. On Wednesday in Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve announced at the FOMC monetary policy committee that the target range for federal funds rates would be lowered from 4.00% to 4.25% to 3.75% to 4.00%, effective December 1, and also decided to end the balance sheet contraction from December 1, marking the first consecutive second FOMC rate cut in a year. Fed Chairman Powell said in a post-meeting press conference that cutting rates again in December is not a certainty.