JP Morgan: If the merger of the railway giants is approved, JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU.US) could be the next acquisition target.

Morgan analyst Jamie Baker pointed out that discussions of mergers and acquisitions could potentially bring JetBlue Airways Corporation (JBLU.US) some upward potential. His team believes that the cooperation between United Airlines (UAL.US) and JetBlue Airways Corporation may just be the tip of the iceberg. Investors need to closely monitor the mergers and acquisitions in the railway sector - currently, Norfolk Southern (NSC.US) and Union Pacific (UNP.US), both with market shares exceeding 20%, are seeking to merge. If approved, their combined market share would be approximately 45%. It is understood that the key to whether the next round of aviation mergers in the United States will pass regulatory approval lies in the tolerance of regulatory agencies for the concentration of "network-type infrastructure". The railway merger case of Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific has already been submitted for approval, and the approval of their 45% market share will serve as a "regulatory barometer" for the aviation industry mergers - if the railway merger is approved, horizontal integration within the aviation industry of up to 50% is also likely to be approved; if the railway merger is rejected, the window for follow-up in the aviation industry will immediately tighten. Therefore, analysts see the railway case as a leading indicator when determining the timing of aviation mergers. Baker emphasized that the likelihood of JetBlue Airways Corporation being acquired is much higher than applying for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Specifically, if JetBlue Airways Corporation merges with United Airlines, its domestic market share would only be on par with American Airlines (AAL.US) and Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US), at about 16%; if it merges with Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK.US), its market share would only be 7%, ranking fifth in the US domestic market; and if it merges with Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV.US), Southwest Airlines Co.'s domestic market share would reach 22%. In conclusion, Baker wrote: "Overall, we believe that depending on the results of the railway mergers, there may be a new round of consolidation in the aviation industry in the current or next administration." As of the time of writing, JetBlue Airways Corporation's stock price had fallen by 1.07% in early trading, to $4.11.