Guotai Junan Securities: Goldwind Science & Technology's performance is expected to continue to improve, with a target price of 17 Hong Kong dollars.

Guotai Junan Securities released a research report stating that Goldwind Science & Technology (02208) products cover onshore, offshore, and overseas wind power markets. Currently, the wind power market is prosperous, and as a leading company, the company has seen significant growth in both domestic and overseas orders. With stable and rising prices for new wind turbine orders, as well as an increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas business, the bank believes that the company's performance is expected to continue to improve. The bank has raised the company's net profit forecast for 2025/2026/2027 to 34.6/45.1/58.1 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of +86%/+30%/+29%. The EPS is expected to be 0.82/1.07/1.38 yuan, and the corresponding PEs for H-shares are 14/11/8.5 times. The bank recommends a "buy" rating with a target price of 17 Hong Kong dollars. The main points of Guotai Junan Securities are as follows: The company achieved revenue of 48.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.2% (non-GAAP net profit of 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%), resulting in an EPS of 0.6 yuan, meeting expectations. Significant growth in Q3 performance, with improved gross margin The company achieved revenue of 48.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with a net profit of 2.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.2% (non-GAAP net profit of 2.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%), resulting in an EPS of 0.6 yuan, meeting expectations. In the quarterly view, the company achieved revenue of 19.61 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with a net profit of 1.097 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.6% (non-GAAP net profit of 1.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 160.5%), resulting in an EPS of 0.25 yuan. The company saw a significant increase in wind turbine sales in Q3, achieving a capacity of 7,809MW for external sales, a year-on-year increase of 71%. From January to September, the company's cumulative external wind turbine sales reached 18,449.7MW, a year-on-year increase of 91%. As of the end of September, the company had an order backlog of 49.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, with offshore orders accounting for 7.16GW, or 14.3%; and orders for 6MW and above units accounting for 83%. The gross margin in Q3 was 13%, an increase of 0.84 percentage points from Q2, contributed by stable wind turbine prices and an increase in the proportion of high-margin overseas products. Wind turbine tender prices are currently stable and slightly increasing, with a public bid price of 1610 yuan/kW in September, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In terms of expenses, benefiting from economies of scale and cost reductions, the company's three expense ratios decreased year-on-year by 3.4 percentage points, with the financial expense ratio down by 1.2 percentage points, the management expense ratio down by 0.8 percentage points, and the sales expense ratio down by 1.4 percentage points. The wind power industry is expected to maintain good momentum during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period The wind power industry is currently in good shape, with 61.09GW of new wind power installed in China from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 56%. The bank predicts that the full-year wind power installation will reach around 110GW, a year-on-year increase of 39%. By the end of Q3, wind power tender volume in 2025 reached 102GW, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%. The pace of wind power tenders has slowed down, but with the gradual implementation of bidding mechanisms for electricity prices in various provinces, the bank has observed that the IRR for new wind power projects is still in a reasonable range (above 8%), and expects a significant increase in tender volume in Q4. The bank expects wind power installations in 2026 to maintain double-digit growth. On October 20th, the Beijing International Wind Power Conference released the "Beijing Wind Power Manifesto 2.0", proposing an annual new installation target of no less than 120GW during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with offshore wind power not less than 15GW; and a cumulative installation capacity of 1,300GW by 2030. The bank expects that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the average annual wind power installation capacity will double compared to the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, and the growth of the wind power industry can be anticipated. Profit forecast The bank expects the company to achieve net profits of 34.6/45.1/58.1 billion yuan in 2025/2026/2027, with year-on-year growth of +86%/+30%/+29%. The EPS is expected to be 0.82/1.07/1.38 yuan, with corresponding PEs for H-shares of 14/11/8.5 times, and a "buy" recommendation is given.